[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 092052
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022
400 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

The satellite presentation of Nicole has not changed much since
late this morning.  Curved bands of convection wrap around much of
the circulation and there has been a ragged eyewall in radar data
from both the Bahamas and Miami.  An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft reported a minimum pressure of 985 mb and
peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 72 kt during its final pass
through the center and northwestern portion of the storm as Nicole
made landfall on Great Abaco Island in the northwestern Bahamas just
prior to 1700 UTC.  Those aircraft data still supported an
intensity of 60 kt, and that remains the initial intensity for
this advisory.

Recent center fixes show that Nicole is moving westward or 270
degrees at 11 kt.  A mid-level ridge located to the north of the
cyclone is expected to shift eastward causing Nicole to turn
west-northwestward to northwestward tonight. This motion
should bring the center onshore the coast of southeastern or
east-central Florida overnight, and across the Florida peninsula
Thursday morning.  As Nicole passes over north Florida late
Thursday, a mid-latitude trough moving into the central United
States is expected to turn the cyclone or its remnants northward
and then northeastward across inland portions of Georgia and the
Carolinas. The dynamical model guidance is in good agreement during
the first 12 to 24 hours, with some increase in spread during the
recurvature portion of the forecast.  The updated NHC track
forecast is very similar to the previous advisory through 24 hours,
but is slightly west thereafter to be close to the latest consensus
aids.

Nicole still has about 12 hours in which to strengthen.  Given the
slightly improved inner core structure and the warm waters of the
Gulf Stream that Nicole will be traversing, the forecast still
calls for the cyclone to reach hurricane status before reaching the
east coast of Florida.  After landfall, weakening should occur as
the center cross the Florida peninsula.  Even if the center briefly
emerges over the extreme northeastern Gulf of Mexico,
re-intensification is not expected.  Nicole is forecast to weaken
further over the southeastern United Sates, and then dissipate along
a frontal zone moving into the eastern United States by 60 hours.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm
surge are expected to continue over portions of the northwestern
Bahamas through this evening, where a Hurricane Warning remains in
effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida beginning this evening or
tonight, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.  Tropical
storm conditions will continue along the east coast of Florida,
Georgia, and South Carolina within the warning areas into
Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin along
the west coast of Florida within the warning area this evening or
tonight.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast
of Florida, portions of coastal Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend
along the Gulf coast.  The storm surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves along the Atlantic coast.  Residents in the
warning area should listen to advice given by local officials.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is a large
storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center,
outside of the forecast cone.  These hazards will affect much of the
Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast United States.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall today into Thursday across the
Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across
portions of the Florida Peninsula along with renewed river rises on
the St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream
flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through
the southern and central Appalachians, including the Blue Ridge
Mountains, and extending northward through west central Pennsylvania
into western New York by Friday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 26.5N  77.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 27.3N  80.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 28.8N  82.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 31.0N  84.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  11/1800Z 34.6N  82.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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