[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Tropical Storm Nicole Local Statement Advisory Number 10
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL172022
1037 AM EST Wed Nov 9 2022

This product covers East Central Florida

**TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE WITH A
LANDFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE TREASURE COAST TONIGHT**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Coastal Indian River, Coastal Martin, Coastal Saint Lucie,
      Coastal Volusia, Northern Brevard Barrier Islands, and Southern
      Brevard Barrier Islands
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Inland Indian River,
      Inland Martin, Inland Northern Brevard, Inland Saint Lucie,
      Inland Southern Brevard, Mainland Northern Brevard, and
      Mainland Southern Brevard
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Inland Volusia,
      Northern Lake, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and
      Southern Lake

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 220 miles east-southeast of Stuart FL
    - 26.5N 76.7W
    - Storm Intensity 70 mph
    - Movement West or 265 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Nicole, currently about 220 miles east of Stuart,
continues to move west at 12 mph and is closing in on the northwest
Bahamas this morning. Nicole will continue westward through this
afternoon and then begin to move west-northwest through tonight.
Confidence is increasing that Nicole will make landfall along
the Treasure Coast at or near Hurricane strength around of shortly after
midnight tonight.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Martin, Saint Lucie, Indian
River, Brevard, and coastal Volusia Counties, including the adjacent
Atlantic waters. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all
interior counties of east central Florida as well as inland Volusia
County.

Due to the large area of strong winds extending well to the north and
northwest of Nicole's center, weather and ocean conditions will
continue to steadily deteriorate today through tonight. By afternoon
sustained northeast to north winds will increase to tropical storm
force along the coast, with higher gusts, and 20 to 30 mph with gusts
well above Tropical Storm Force, especially in increasing coverage of
squalls overnight.

As the center of Nicole nears the Treasure Coast late this evening,
Tropical Storm force winds will further spread farther inland and
north. Hurricane conditions are likely near and north of where the
center makes landfall. Tropical Storm will continue overnight into
Thursday as the center of Nicole moves well inland. A Storm Surge
Warning remains in effect for the entire east central Florida coast,
for the potential of 3 to 5 feet of surge above ground level.

Large breaking waves will exceed 10 feet along with numerous life-
threatening rip currents. Strong winds and high surf will combine with
ongoing high astronomical tides to bring significant storm surge and
major beach erosion around the times of the next several high tide
cycles, which will occur from 815 to 900 PM this evening, 845 to 930
AM Thursday morning and 900 to 945 PM Thursday evening.

Coastal areas of Volusia County which suffered serious damage from
Hurricane Ian remain particularly vulnerable to additional beach
erosion and inundation from coastal flooding! Some coastal structures
in areas of weakened dunes or damaged seawalls may be compromised.
Additional significant surge is expected tonight along the Treasure
Coast closer to where Nicole makes landfall, including flooding along
the intracoastal and Saint Lucie River inlet in low areas.

Stay out of the battering and dangerous surf! Small craft operators
should stay in port until winds and seas subside later this week.

Coverage of showers and squalls will increase areawide today and
tonight, and continue well into Thursday afternoon north of the Lake
Okeechobee and Treasure Coast regions. Stronger squalls will produce
wind gusts well in excess of Tropical Storm force, and up to Hurricane
Force offshore and over coastal counties, especially south of Cape
Canaveral. Increasing bands and areas of heavy rain are forecast to
product rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with local amounts up to
8 inches possible. Urban and poor drainage flooding is very likely,
especially where the water table remains high.

A Flood Watch is in effect for all of east central Florida through
Thursday afternoon.

The combination of heavy rainfall and strong northeast winds could
also cause additional flooding and standing water concerns over the
Saint Johns River Basin, where River Flood Warnings remain in effect.
Some areas along the Saint Johns River which are currently in flood
may reach Major Flood Stage, inundating additional areas. Smaller
rivers and creeks are also expected to rise with additional heavy
rain, with flooding potentially developing Wednesday night into
Thursday.

A threat for tornadoes will develop this evening, and then increase
overnight into early Thursday as the center of Nicole moves inland
across the Florida peninsula.

If you haven't already done so, any last minute preparations for
significant impacts from Nicole should be rushed to completion, before
outdoor activities become dangerous later today.

Take this storm seriously! Your hurricane supply kit should be fully
stocked, and your plan ready to be activated, especially if you live
along the coast, or in an area that is either prone to flooding or has
recently experienced flooding. Always follow recommendations from
local officials including any evacuations orders for your area.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across Brevard, Indian River, coastal Volusia, Saint Lucie
and Martin Counties. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible significant
impacts across Lake, Seminole, Orange, Osceola, Okeechobee, and
inland Volusia Counties.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts along the east central Florida coast from Flagler Beach
to Jupiter Inlet. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across East Central Florida. Potential impacts
include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across East Central Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Any remaining last minute preparations need to be rushed to completion
in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a safe location
before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for
weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away
from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital
contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged.

Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county in which you are
located and where it is relative to current watches and warnings. If
staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their onsite
disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially pertaining to
visitors.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an
emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 6 PM EST, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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