[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

Wed Nov 9 09:31:26 CST 2022

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Tropical Storm Nicole Local Statement Advisory Number 10
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL  AL172022
1031 AM EST Wed Nov 9 2022

This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

**CENTER OF NICOLE APPROACHING GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning for Baker, Hamilton, Northern Columbia, Southern
      Columbia, Suwannee, and Union
    - A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Clinch and Echols
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Northern Ware and
      Southern Ware

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Coastal Camden, Coastal Duval, Coastal Flagler, Coastal
      Glynn, Coastal Nassau, Coastal St. Johns, Eastern Clay, Eastern
      Putnam, Inland St. Johns, South Central Duval, and Trout River
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Baker, Bradford,
      Central Marion, Clinch, Eastern Alachua, Eastern Marion,
      Echols, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Inland Camden, Inland Flagler,
      Inland Glynn, Inland Nassau, Northern Columbia, Southern
      Columbia, Suwannee, Union, Western Alachua, Western Clay,
      Western Duval, Western Marion, and Western Putnam
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Brantley, Northeastern
      Charlton, Northern Ware, Pierce, Southern Ware, Wayne, and
      Western Charlton

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 390 miles southeast of Jacksonville FL or about 380 miles
      east-southeast of Ocala FL
    - 26.5N 76.7W
    - Storm Intensity 70 mph
    - Movement West or 265 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Nicole will track west and be in the northern
Bahamas today. Further intensification to hurricane strength is
expected as Nicole nears landfall along the southeast Florida Atlantic
coast tonight. Nicole is expected to track northwest across central
Florida Thursday and then across north Florida near the Gulf Coast
Florida Thursday night. A more northward track is expected into Friday
as the storm tracks across southeast Georgia. Local storm preparations
need to be rushed to completion today as impacts from Nicole will
worsen tonight.

Nicole will bring life-threatening storm surge inundation along the
local Atlantic Coast and within the St. Johns River basin tonight
through Thursday. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts increase along the
local Atlantic coast the rest of today, then increase across
inland northeast Florida and coastal southeast Georgia late
tonight through Thursday. Rainbands will begin to push up from
the south tonight over northeast Florida tonight, and into
southeast GA on Thursday. This rainbands will likely contain
tropical storm force wind gusts at times.

The tornado threat will increase during the pre-dawn hours Thursday
morning and further increases through midday Thursday up the local
Atlantic coast, extending inland toward the Highway 301 corridor.
Bands of heavy rainfall will bring the highest flooding rainfall
threat to coastal northeast Florida. Extremely dangerous coastal
hazards including destructive surf and frequent rip currents will
continue today through Friday.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for portions of the area. There
is a localized flash flood risk Thursday and Friday, mainly impacting
the northeast Florida coast and counties near the St Johns River
basin.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across coastal northeast Florida, coastal southeast Georgia,
Intracoastal Waterways, and the St. Johns River Basin. Potential
impacts in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across portions of northeast Florida. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across southeast Georgia and the rest of northeast Florida.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across coastal areas extending inland toward the Highway 301
corridor through Thursday. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
      uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
      Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across areas
west of Highway 301.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia.
Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help
keep roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Complete all preparations to protect life and property today in
accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a safe
location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.

If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter
rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have
pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Jacksonville FL around 430 PM, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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