[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090943
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Nov 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0940 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 26.6N 75.7W at 09/0900
UTC or 80 nm E of Great Abaco Island moving WSW at 11 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Convection had been
diminishing through the late evening and early overnight hours,
but has recently started to increase again with banding forming
within 45 nm of the center. Seas 12 ft or greater extend well into
the north-central Atlantic, but are fetch limited elsewhere due
the proximity of the storm to Florida and the Bahamas. Nicole
will bring hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge to
portions of the northwestern Bahamas today. Hurricane conditions
are expected across portions of the coast of southeast and east-central
Florida beginning this evening or tonight. A dangerous storm
surge is expected along much of the east coast of Florida and
portions of coastal Georgia where a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml as well
as the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is east of the Windward Islands along 59W, south
of 18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed from 10N to 11N between 56W and 58W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is mainly confined to the African continent,
entering the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to
10N17W. The ITCZ extends from 10N17W to 05N28W to 10N45W, and from
10N50W to 12N58W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection from
05N to 07N between 23W and 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Buoy observations and scatterometer satellite data show fresh to
strong NE winds across the northeast and north-central Gulf, with
moderate to rough seas. These winds and seas are in a tightening
pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and
advance of T.S. Nicole in the western Atlantic. Elsewhere,
moderate NE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas persist. A few showers and
thunderstorms are active over the south-central Gulf near 24N87W,
over the warm Loop Current.

For the forecast, Nicole will strengthen to a hurricane near
26.6N 77.7W this afternoon, move inland over Florida and weaken to
a tropical storm near 27.1N 80.4W Thu morning. Nicole will move
to 28.5N 82.9W over the northeast Gulf of Mexico Thu afternoon,
onshore again over north Florida and reach 30.7N 84.1W Fri
morning, weaken to a tropical depression farther north over the
Carolinas Fri afternoon, then dissipate early Sun. Nicole will
bring tropical storm force winds to the far northeast Gulf tonight
through Thu night, and strong winds and rough seas elsewhere over
the eastern Gulf. Winds and seas will diminish through Fri.
Looking ahead, a cold front moving into the northwest Gulf Fri
night, stalling from west-central Florida to the southwest Gulf by
Sat night. Strong winds and rough seas will follow the front over
the far western Gulf Sat and Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Plenty of tropical moisture and divergence aloft continues to
produce isolated showers across the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere,
fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail. The Caribbean remains
in a weak pressure regime as light to gentle winds prevail,
except for moderate easterly winds over the far eastern Caribbean
east of 65W. Seas are 2-4 ft in the eastern and NW Caribbean and
1-2 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds with slight to
moderate seas will persist through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on
Tropical Storm Nicole, which is impacting much of the waters
west of 60W.

Outside of the influence of Tropical Storm Nicole, a 1020 mb high
pressure system positioned just south of the Azores dominates the
central and eastern tropical Atlantic. Ample tropical moisture
flowing northward and divergence aloft sustain scattered moderate
convection north of 20N and west of 65W. Strong winds and rough
seas persist north of 25N and east of 70W. Moderate winds and seas
are noted elsewhere across the Atlantic south of 31N.

For the forecast west of 55W, Nicole will strengthen to a hurricane near
26.6N 77.7W this afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm as it moves
inland over Florida near 27.1N 80.4W Thu morning. Nicole will move
to 28.5N 82.9W over the northeast Gulf of Mexico Thu afternoon,
onshore again over north Florida and reach 30.7N 84.1W Fri
morning, weaken to a tropical depression farther north over the
Carolinas Fri afternoon, then dissipate early Sun. Looking ahead,
a cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida Sat
night or early Sun, then weaken as it moves to a position from
Bermuda to the Florida Straits by late Sun night.

$$
Christensen
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