[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Nov 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0555 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 26.9N 75.4W at 09/0600 UTC
or 95 nm ENE of Great Abaco Island, Bahamas, moving WSW at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 275 nm N semicircle and 120 nm S
semicircle. Peak seas are estimated at 30 ft. The 12 ft seas
extend outward up to 480 nm N semicircle and 300 nm S semicircle.
The tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 330 nm NW
quadrant and 240 nm E semicircle. A WSW to westward motion is
expected through today. A WNW motion is forecast to begin
tonight, followed by a turn toward the NW and N on Thu and Thu
night. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach
the NW Bahamas this morning, move near or over those islands by
this afternoon, and approach the east coast of Florida within the
hurricane warning area tonight or early Thu. Nicole's center is
then expected to move across central and northern Florida into
southern Georgia Thu and Thu night. Some strengthening is
expected during the next day or so, and Nicole is forecast to
become a hurricane later today and remain a hurricane when it
reaches the east coast of Florida. Dangerous storm surge, very
rough surf and deadly rip currents are expected as the storm
approaches Florida. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml as well
as the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 58W, south of 18N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
observed from the coast of NW South America to 13N and between 52W
and 63W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is mainly confined to the African continent,
entering the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W to
08N19W. The ITCZ extends from 08N19W to 06N35W to 10N56W. Isolated
to scattered moderate convection is seen within 400 nm on both
sides of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A robust high pressure system over the SE Canada extends southward into
the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining fairly tranquil weather
conditions across the basin. The pressure gradient between the
high pressure and Tropical Storm Nicole approaching the NW Bahamas
support fresh to near gale-force NE-E winds N of 22N. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass captured the strongest winds
occurring E of 87W. Seas in these waters are 4-8 ft, with the
highest seas occurring near 27N87W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Nicole is over the Atlantic near
27.1N 74.8W 984 mb at 10 PM EST moving WSW at 9 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts 75 kt. Nicole will
strengthen to a hurricane near 26.9N 76.3W Wed morning, move to
26.9N 78.8W Wed evening, then move inland over Florida and
weaken to a tropical storm near 27.9N 81.4W Thu morning. Nicole
will remain inland and move to 29.7N 83.4W Thu evening, weaken
to a tropical depression near 32.8N 83.3W Fri morning, and
become extratropical well north of the area Fri evening. Nicole
will bring tropical storm force winds to the far northeast Gulf
Wed night through Thu night, and strong winds and rough seas
elsewhere to the northeast Gulf. Winds and seas will diminish
through Fri. Looking ahead, strong winds will follow a cold
front moving into the northwest Gulf Fri night. The front will
extend across the southern Gulf by late Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Plenty of tropical moisture and divergence aloft continues to
produce isolated showers across the eastern Caribbean. Meanwhile,
a surface trough draped across the Bay Islands is helping to
generate some shower activity in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere,
fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail. The Caribbean remains
in a weak pressure regime as light to gentle winds prevail, except
for moderate easterly winds E of 66W and moderate northerly winds
N of 19N and W of 79W. Seas are 2-4 ft in the eastern and NW
Caribbean and 1-2 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds with slight to
moderate seas will persist through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on
Tropical Storm Nicole, which is impacting much of the waters
west of 60W.

Outside of the influence of Tropical Storm Nicole, a 1022 mb high
pressure system positioned just south of the Azores dominates the
central and eastern tropical Atlantic. Ample tropical moisture
flowing northward and divergence aloft sustain scattered moderate
convection N of 20N and between 58W and 66W. The pressure gradient
between the high pressure and Nicole support moderate to fresh
southerly winds N of 20N and between 55W and 68W. Seas of 6-9 ft
are also found in these waters. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
trade winds are noted S of 20N and between Africa and the Lesser
Antilles, along with seas of 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Nicole is near 27.1N 74.8W 984 mb at
10 PM EST, moving WSW at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt
gusts 75 kt. Nicole will strengthen to a hurricane near 26.9N
76.3W Wed morning, move to 26.9N 78.8W Wed evening, then move
inland over Florida and weaken to a tropical storm near 27.9N
81.4W Thu morning. Nicole will remain inland and move to 29.7N
83.4W Thu evening, then weaken to a tropical depression near
32.8N 83.3W Fri morning before becoming extratropical well north
of the area Fri evening. Looking ahead, a cold front will move off
the coast of northeast Florida Sat night or early Sun, then weaken
as it moves to a position from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by
late Sun night.

$$
DELGADO
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