[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement
EMWIN Server
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Tue Nov 8 15:08:44 CST 2022
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Tropical Storm Nicole Local Statement Advisory Number 7
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL AL172022
408 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2022
This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia
**NICOLE INTENSIFYING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON
WEDNESDAY**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning for Bradford, Central Marion, Eastern Alachua, Eastern
Clay, Eastern Marion, Eastern Putnam, Gilchrist, Inland Camden,
Inland Flagler, Inland Glynn, Inland Nassau, Inland St. Johns,
South Central Duval, Trout River, Western Alachua, Western
Clay, Western Duval, Western Marion, and Western Putnam
- A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Baker, Brantley,
Hamilton, Northeastern Charlton, Northern Columbia, Pierce,
Southern Columbia, Suwannee, Union, Wayne, and Western Charlton
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bradford, Central
Marion, Eastern Alachua, Eastern Marion, Gilchrist, Inland
Camden, Inland Flagler, Inland Glynn, Inland Nassau, Western
Alachua, Western Clay, Western Duval, Western Marion, and
Western Putnam
- A Storm Surge Warning, Tropical Storm Warning, and Hurricane
Watch are in effect for Coastal Flagler and Coastal St. Johns
- A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
for Coastal Camden, Coastal Duval, Coastal Glynn, Coastal
Nassau, Eastern Clay, Eastern Putnam, Inland St. Johns, South
Central Duval, and Trout River
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Baker, Brantley,
Hamilton, Northeastern Charlton, Northern Columbia, Pierce,
Southern Columbia, Suwannee, Union, Wayne, and Western Charlton
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 510 miles east-southeast of Jacksonville FL or about 530
miles east of Ocala FL
- 27.5N 73.7W
- Storm Intensity 65 mph
- Movement West or 260 degrees at 10 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
Nicole is expected to bring widespread impacts with life-threatening
storm surge flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough
surf, and rip currents. Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
portions of the area and a hurricane watch is in effect for coastal St
Johns and coastal Flagler counties. There is a localized flash
flooding risk Wednesday night into Friday, and a Flood Watch is in
effect for portions of northeast Florida. A tornado threat may develop
during the day on Thursday as well to the north and east of the center.
Nicole is currently expected to reach Hurricane level strength as it
crosses through the Bahamas and on towards the southern Florida
peninsula. The continued track has Nicole pressing into the southern
Florida peninsula and reaching towards the Nature Coast by Thursday
evening and then turning its path towards the northeast and crossing
northeast Florida, southeast Georgia and into the Carolinas Friday and
Friday evening.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across coastal northeast Florida, coastal southeast Georgia,
Intracoastal Waterways, and the St. Johns River Basin. Potential
impacts in this area include:
- Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
- Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
spots.
- Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
numerous rip currents.
- Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Several
small craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected
anchorages.
* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across most areas northeast Florida and portions of southeast Georgia.
Potential impacts in this area include:
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
in areas with above ground lines.
Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across the rest of southeast Georgia.
* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia.
Potential impacts include:
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.
* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia. Potential impacts
include:
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
pulled from moorings.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.
For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.
If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.
If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter
rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have
pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.
Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.
Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!
If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.
Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Jacksonville FL around 430 PM EST, or sooner if conditions
warrant.
$$
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