[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Subtropical Storm Nicole Local Statement Advisory Number 5
National Weather Service Miami FL  AL172022
418 AM EST Tue Nov 8 2022

This product covers South Florida

**NICOLE FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM TODAY**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning, Tropical Storm Warning, and Hurricane
      Watch are in effect for Coastal Palm Beach
    - A Tropical Storm Warning, Storm Surge Watch, and Hurricane
      Watch are in effect for Coastal Broward
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Inland Broward, Inland Palm Beach, Metro Broward, and Metro
      Palm Beach
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Coastal Miami-Dade,
      Glades, Hendry, and Metro Miami-Dade

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 520 miles east of West Palm Beach FL or about 540 miles
      east-northeast of Miami FL
    - 27.6N 71.6W
    - Storm Intensity 45 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 310 degrees at 8 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Subtropical Storm Nicole remains entangled with an upper-level
shortwave this morning, which is impeding any significant
organization/strengthening. Nicole is forecast to begin turning west
and southwest beginning today as a strong low-level ridge spreads
across the eastern CONUS, resulting in northeasterly steering flow
across Nicole. While small changes in the track and intensity could
result in some changes to the expected magnitude of impacts locally,
there's generally a pretty clear picture of the expected hazards,
and decent confidence in their impacts locally.

* Coastal Flooding/Surge - The main surge event from Nicole is forecast
with the Wednesday morning high tide cycle. This could bring peak
inundation values along the immediate coast of 3 to 5 feet across
northern portions of Palm Beach county, 2 to 4 feet southward to
Hallandale Beach, and 1 to 3 feet south through Miami-Dade county.
Additionally, as Nicole emerges into/or nears the Gulf, onshore flow
along its southwest side could result in minor coastal flooding across
Collier county Thursday into Friday.

* Rainfall - The main rainfall from Nicole is forecast Wednesday into
Thursday morning where more widespread 2-3 inches of rain are forecast
and isolated higher amounts may reach their peak. Overall, from today
through Thursday widespread average amounts will likely fall between
2-4" with isolated higher amounts between 6-7". While this may cause
scattered flooding concerns, the main concern for flash flooding will be
nearer to the coast where coastal flooding is occurring or in poor
drainage areas as water will likely not drain as efficiently.

* Wind - The onset of Tropical Storm force winds could begin as early as
Wednesday morning, but is most likely by Wednesday evening. The
strongest winds are expected overnight Wednesday into Thursday
morning when sustained Tropical Storm force winds are expected
across portions of Broward and especially Palm Beach county. It
still remains possible that sustained Hurricane force winds will
occur in this area as well, though that is more dependent on the
eventual strength of Nicole. For now, Hurricane force winds would be
more likely in gusts and closer to the coasts.

* Tornadoes - A low-end tornado threat is currently forecast Wednesday
into Thursday as banding from the system moves ashore along the
Florida east coast. The greatest potential for tornadoes will be along
the Palm Beach county northward.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across the Palm Beach and Broward coasts. Potential impacts
in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across Miami-Dade and Collier counties.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across Palm Beach county. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across the remainder of south Florida, especially
Broward, Hendry, and Glades counties.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across Palm Beach and coastal Broward counties.
Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Ditches and canals may quickly become swollen with swift
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across the remainder of south Florida.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across Palm Beach and Glades counties. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, mobile
      homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and
      branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving
      vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across South Florida, little to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Miami FL around 10 AM EST, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$
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