[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Subtropical Storm Nicole Local Statement Advisory Number 4
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL172022
1043 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2022

This product covers East Central Florida

**Subtropical Storm Nicole Will Turn Westward and Approach East
Central Florida by MId Week**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Storm Surge
      Warning and a Tropical Storm Warning have been issued for
      Coastal Indian River, Coastal Martin, Coastal Saint Lucie,
      Northern Brevard Barrier Islands, and Southern Brevard Barrier
      Islands
    - The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Storm Surge
      Warning and the Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a
      Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Volusia
    - A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Inland Indian
      River, Inland Martin, Inland Northern Brevard, Inland Saint
      Lucie, Inland Southern Brevard, Mainland Northern Brevard, and
      Mainland Southern Brevard

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning, Tropical Storm Warning, and Hurricane
      Watch are in effect for Coastal Indian River, Coastal Martin,
      Coastal Saint Lucie, Northern Brevard Barrier Islands, and
      Southern Brevard Barrier Islands
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Coastal Volusia
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Inland Indian River, Inland Martin, Inland Northern Brevard,
      Inland Saint Lucie, Inland Southern Brevard, Mainland Northern
      Brevard, and Mainland Southern Brevard
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Inland Volusia,
      Northern Lake, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and
      Southern Lake

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 570 miles east of Vero Beach FL
    - 27.0N 71.1W
    - Storm Intensity 45 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 310 degrees at 8 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Subtropical Storm Nicole is forecast to turn and move west overnight
and then west-southwest toward the northern Bahamas Tuesday into
Wednesday. Nicole is forecast to transition to a purely tropical system
and approach the Florida east coast at or near Hurricane strength late
Wednesday into Wednesday night.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the entire east coast of
central Florida from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet, including Martin,
Saint Lucie, Indian River, Brevard and Coastal Volusia Counties. This
also includes the adjacent Atlantic waters out to 60 nautical miles.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Brevard, Indian River, Saint
Lucie and Martin Counties, including the adjacent Atlantic waters, for
the possibility of hurricane force winds near the forecast point of
landfall. A Tropical Storm Watch continues for Lake, Seminole, Orange,
Osceola, Okeechobee and Inland Volusia Counties.

Due to the large area of strong winds extending well to the north and
northwest of Nicole's center, weather and ocean conditions will
continue to steadily deteriorate through Tuesday through Wednesday.
Northeast winds will increase to 20 to 25 mph with gusts above
Tropical Storm Force in increasing coverage of squalls on Tuesday. As
the center of Nicole nears the east coast of Florida Wednesday,
tropical storm force winds will begin to overspread the region, with
hurricane conditions possible near and to the north of where the
center makes landfall.

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the entire east central
Florida coast, for the potential of 3 to 5 feet of surge above ground
level.

Large breaking waves will reach 8 to 10 feet Tuesday, and exceed 10
feet beginning Tuesday night. Numerous life-threatening rip currents
will continue. The strong winds and high surf will combine with ongoing
high astronomical tides to bring significant storm surge and major
beach erosion around the times of the next several high tide cycles
from Tuesday through Thursday. Coastal areas of Volusia County which
suffered serious damage from Hurricane Ian remain particularly
vulnerable to additional beach erosion and inundation from coastal
flooding!

Do not enter the water under any circumstance! Small craft operators
should stay in port until conditions start to improve late this week
or the weekend.

Increasing coverage of showers and squalls is also expected from this
storm by late Tuesday. Squalls could produce wind gusts in excess of
50 mph, especially offshore and over coastal counties. Repeated rounds
of heavy showers could produce rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches over
the coastal counties, with 2 to 3 inches forecast farther inland.
Locally higher amounts up to 7 inches are possible, especially along
the coast closer to where the system makes landfall. This may cause
flooding and ponding of water in poorly drained urban areas,
especially where the water table remains high.

The combination of heavy rainfall and strong northeast winds could
also cause additional flooding and standing water concerns over the
Saint Johns River Basin, where River Flood Warnings remain in effect.
A Flood Watch will likely be issued for all of east central Florida
tomorrow for the duration of the event.

A threat for tornadoes will develop late Wednesday into Wednesday
night as the center of the storm moves inland across the Florida
peninsula, and continue on Thursday.

Don't let the fact that the calendar says November or hurricane season
fatigue allow you to become complacent about preparing for this storm.
Make sure your hurricane supply kit is stocked, and you have a plan in
place, especially if you live along the coast or in an area that is
either prone to flooding or has recently experienced flooding.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts
across Martin, Saint Lucie, Indian River, Brevard, and coastal Volusia
Counties. Potential impacts in this area include:

    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible significant
impacts across Lake, Seminole, Orange, Osceola, Okeechobee, and inland
Volusia Counties.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across the east central Florida coast from Flagler Beach to
Jupiter Inlet.

. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.


* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across east central Florida, especially the coastal counties
and over the Saint Johns River basin. Potential impacts include:

    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.


* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across East Central Florida. Potential impacts include:

    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging wind
gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the center of
the storm.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of strong
gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness activities to
become unsafe.

Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for
weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away
from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital
contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged.

Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county or parish in which
you are located and where it is relative to current watches and
warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their
onsite disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially
pertaining to area visitors.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 5 AM EST, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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