[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050551
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Nov 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Lisa is centered near 19.5N 95.5W at 05/0300
UTC or 220 nm WNW of Ciudad Del Carmen Mexico moving N at 3 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. A small area of showers
and thunderstorms is occurring NE of the low from 19N to 22N and
between 94W and 96W. Seas of 7-9 ft are found near the center.
Lisa is expected to have a slow northward motion into early
Saturday. Lisa or its remnants are then forecast to stall or drift
southward through the remainder of the weekend. Gradual weakening
is forecast, and Lisa is expected to become a remnant low by
early Saturday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

Atlantic Gale Warning:
A large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop
across the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic by
the latter part of the weekend. The system is initially expected
to be very broad and disorganized. However, it could begin to
acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics during the early
part of next week, and a subtropical or tropical depression could
form during the early to middle portion of next week while the
system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the
southwestern Atlantic. A tight pressure gradient between the low
and strong high pressure farther north is expected to lead to a
broad area of strong to near-gale force SE winds east of the low,
possibly reaching minimal gale force with very rough seas north of
the Leeward Islands and east of the central Bahamas late Sun and
Sun night. Looking ahead, strong to near-gale force winds and
rough to very rough seas are possible off northeast Florida from
late Mon through mid week as the low pressure shifts northwestward
into a strong ridge centered north of the area. Localized heavy
rainfall is also possible across Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands
during the next few days. This system also has a low chance of
development over the next 48 hours and a medium chance of
development in the next 5 days. Please refer to the High Seas
Forecast issued by NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and the Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36W, south of
20N, moving W at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough
axis.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W,
south of 20N, moving W around 10-15 knots. Widely scattered
showers to isolated thunderstorms are noted from 09N to 19N and
between 50W and 59W.

The tropical wave previously assessed over the central Caribbean
Sea has been absorbed into the surface trough extending from the
SE Bahamas to northern Venezuela. For more details, please read
the Caribbean Sea section below.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African
continent, reaching the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone
near 07N12W to 06N14W. The ITCZ extends from 06N14W to 03N35W and
then from 03N39W to 10N54W. A few showers are observed near the
ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough stretches from
the Colombia coast near 11N74W to the coast of Costa Rica near
11N83W. Isolated to scattered showers are occurring in the SW
Caribbean in association with these boundary.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about
Tropical Depression Lisa.

Outside the influence of T.D. Lisa, a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms are present in the eastern Bay of Campeche due to
afternoon and evening convection that developed over the Yucatan
peninsula and progressed westward during the last few hours. The
remainder of the Gulf is dominated by a strong high pressure
system positioned between Bermuda and Nova Scotia, maintaining
fairly tranquil weather conditions. The pressure gradient between
the subtropical ridge and lower pressures associated with Lisa and
an approaching cold front over Texas support moderate to locally
fresh anticyclonic winds across the Gulf. Seas are 3-6 ft in the
Gulf, with the highest seas off the coast of Texas.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Lisa near 19.5N 95.5W 1008 mb at
11 PM EDT moving N at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds 25 kt gusts 35
kt. Lisa will become a remnant low and move to 20.0N 95.5W Sat
morning, 20.1N 95.3W Sat evening, 19.9N 95.2W Sun morning, 19.6N
95.2W Sun evening, and dissipate Mon morning. Elsewhere, high
pressure over the remainder of the Gulf will shift eastward
through Sat. A cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf late
into Sat, then stall and dissipate through Sun. Looking ahead,
the pressure gradient is expected to tighten between high pressure
building southward over the area and broad low pressure that will
approach Florida from the Bahamas starting late Sun. This pattern
will result in increasing winds and building seas Mon through Wed
over the eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from southern Hispaniola to NW Hispaniola
and divergence aloft result a large area of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms east of the trough axis. Moderate to strong
easterly trade winds and seas of 4-7 ft are occurring in the
eastern Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and
seas of 2-5 ft are found in the NW Caribbean and the Windward
Passage. Moderate to locally SW winds and seas of 2-4 ft are noted
south of the monsoon trough. In the rest of the Caribbean, light
to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, strong winds and rough seas prevail over the
northeast Caribbean. Favorable conditions aloft support the
development of broad low pressure in this area over the next
couple of days, which will become better organized as it moves
into the southwest Atlantic early next week. This pattern will
support strong to near-gale force winds over the Atlantic waters
near the Leeward Islands with rough to very rough seas Sat night
into Sun. These conditions will improve through the early part
of the week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds with slight to
moderate seas will persist through the early and middle portions
of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A strong upper level low near the SE Bahamas is interacting with a
surface trough that extends from 24N72W to the eastern Caribbean
and into Venezuela. The result is a large area of widely scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms S of 25N and W of 55W. Another
surface trough extends from the coast of South Carolina to just
off Florida and into the NW Bahamas. However, this boundary is
only producing scattered shallow showers. Moderate to strong
easterly winds are depicted in the latest scatterometer satellite
pass N of 24N and W of 55W, with the strongest winds occurring N
of 27N. Seas of 8 ft or greater are noted N of 25N and W of 55W,
with seas at or greater than 12 ft are present N of 27N. A recent
altimeter satellite pass captured seas up to 14 ft near 28N69W and
up to 15 ft near 29N60W. In the rest of the western tropical
Atlantic (W of 55W), moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

A 1015 mb low pressure near 31N52W is producing showers and
thunderstorms, mainly north and northeast of the center. The
remainder of the tropical Atlantic enjoys fairly tranquil weather
conditions outside of the deep tropics. Moderate to fresh easterly
trade winds are evident south of a line from the Canary Islands to
the Leeward Islands. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, strong high pressure building north of
the area will support strong to near gale force easterly winds,
mainly north of 27N through Sat night. Large NE swell will push
southward across the entire area over the weekend. A large non-
tropical low pressure system is expected to develop across the
northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic by the latter
part of the weekend. The system is initially expected to be very
broad and disorganized. However, it could begin to acquire
subtropical or tropical characteristics during the early part of
next week, and a subtropical or tropical depression could form
during the early to middle portion of next week while the system
moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the
southwestern Atlantic. A tight pressure gradient between the low
and strong high pressure farther north is expected to lead to a
broad area of strong to near-gale force SE winds east of the low,
possibly reaching minimal gale force with very rough seas north of
the Leeward Islands and east of the central Bahamas late Sun and
Sun night. Looking ahead, strong to near-gale force winds and
rough to very rough seas are possible off northeast Florida from
late Mon through mid week as the low pressure shifts northwestward
into a strong ridge centered north of the area.

$$
DELGADO
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