[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042333
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Nov 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Lisa is centered near 19.3N 95.3W at 04/2100
UTC or 200 nm WNW of Ciudad Del Carmen Mexico moving NNW at 4
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are noted north of the low from 20N to
21N between 95W and 96W. Seas range 8-9 ft near the center. Lisa
is expected to have a slow northward motion tonight and early
Saturday. Lisa or its remnants are then forecast to stall or drift
southward through the remainder of the weekend. Gradual weakening
is forecast, and Lisa is expected to become a remnant low tonight
or Saturday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

Atlantic Gale Warning:
Favorable conditions aloft will support the development of broad
low pressure near Hispaniola over the next couple of days. This
low is expected to become better organized as it moves into the
southwest Atlantic early next week. This pattern will support
strong to near-gale force winds over the Atlantic waters near the
Leeward Islands with rough to very rough seas Sat night through
Sun night. These conditions will improve through the early part of
the week. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 36W from 16N southward, and
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are seen from
14N to 16N between 34W and 39W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from 18N southward,
and moving westward around 15 knots. Widely scattered showers are
noted from 09N to 13N between 49W and 53W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W from the Dominican Republic
southward to northwestern Venezuela, and moving westward around
10 kt. Aided by divergent winds aloft, scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are noted across the eastern Caribbean
Basin, including the Mona Passage, Puerto Rico, the Lesser
Antilles and Virgin Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea-Bissau
coast near 12N16W to 10N22W. The ITCZ extends from 05N14W to
07N35W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 05N37W to 06N50W,
then continues W of another tropical wave from 09N52W to 12N61W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 100 nm of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough stretches from
the Colombia coast near 11N75W to the coast of Costa Rica near
10N83W. Scattered scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
over Panama and northwester Colombia, and nearby Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about
Tropical Depression Lisa.

Outside the influence of T.D. Lisa, a surface ridge extends
southwestward from a 1031 mb high over the Mid-Atlantic U.S.
States across the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico.
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are noted with locally fresh
winds in the NW Gulf. Seas of 3 to 6 ft are seen over the rest of
the Gulf.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Lisa is near 19.3N 95.3W
1008 mb at 5 PM EDT, moving NNW at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 25 kt gusts 35 kt. Lisa will move to 20.0N 95.5W Sat morning,
become a remnant low and move to 20.6N 95.3W Sat afternoon, then
continue to 20.3N 95.2W Sun morning, 19.9N 95.2W Sun afternoon,
before dissipating Mon morning. Elsewhere, high pressure over the
remainder of the Gulf will shift eastward through Sat. A cold
front is expected to enter the NW Gulf late tonight into Sat, then
stall and dissipate through Sun. Looking ahead, the pressure
gradient is expected to tighten between high pressure building
southward over the area and broad low pressure that will approach
Florida from the Bahamas starting late Sun. This pattern will
result in increasing winds and building seas Mon through Wed over
the eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
weather in the Caribbean Basin. Fresh to strong winds are noted in
the eastern Caribbean, south of Puerto Rico with seas 6 ft near
the highest winds. Moderate to fresh SE trades and seas of 3 to 5
ft are present elsewhere over the eastern basin. Light to gentle
monsoonal winds with 2 to 3 ft seas are found at the southwestern
corner of the basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E trades and seas at
2 to 4 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, strong winds and rough seas over the northeast
Caribbean follow a tropical wave south of Hispaniola. Favorable
conditions aloft support the development of broad low pressure in
this area over the next couple of days, which will become better
organized as it moves into the southwest Atlantic early next week.
This pattern will support strong to near-gale force winds over
the Atlantic waters near the Leeward Islands with rough to very
rough seas Sat night into Sun. These conditions will improve
through the early part of the week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
winds with slight to moderate seas will persist through the early
and middle portions of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pronounced upper level low is centered north of the Greater
Antilles near 24N72W. At the surface, a trough extends off the
Florida coast to the Bahamas from 23N75W to beyond 31N80W.
Isolated showers are noted near this feature and moving across the
Florida nearshore waters. Moderate to locally fresh winds are
along this feature, particularly off the Florida coast with seas 5
to 6 ft. To the east, a weak 1014 mb surface low is noted near
28N56W with a trough extending along it from 26N71W to 31N48W.
Due to divergent flow aloft interacting with this feature,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near the
west end of the trough from 18N to 29N between 56W and 71W.
Scattered thunderstorms are also noted northeast of the trough and
low from 28N to beyond 31N between 43W and 59W. North of this
system, strong NE to E winds prevail. Seas range 8 to 12 ft, with
the highest seas noted N of 27N between 55W and 67W. The 8 ft seas
extend as far S as 26N and as far west as 76W.

In the eastern Atlantic, a 1025 mb Azores High is supporting
moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft north of
20N and E of 55W. Farther south, gentle to moderate NE to E
trades with 4 to 6 ft seas are present from 09N to 20N between
the central African coast and Lesser Antilles/60W. Light to
gentle monsoonal and southerly winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail
for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, strong high pressure building north of
the area will lead to strong to near gale force easterly winds,
mainly north of 27N through Sat night. Large NE swell will push
southward across the entire area over the weekend. Broad low
pressure may form over the northeast Caribbean over the next
couple of days, with tropical or subtropical development possible
while the low moves to a position north of Hispaniola and east of
the Turks and Caicos Sun. A tight pressure gradient between the
low and strong high pressure farther north is expected to lead to
a broad area of strong to near-gale force SE winds east of the
low, possibly reaching minimal gale force with very rough seas
north of the Leeward Islands and east of the central Bahamas late
Sun and Sun night. Looking ahead, strong to near-gale force winds
and rough to very rough seas are possible off northeast Florida
from late Mon through mid week as the low pressure shifts
northwestward into a strong ridge centered north of the area.

$$
AReinhart
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