[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Mar 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong to near gale force S winds with
frequent gusts to gale force are expected off NE Florida early
this morning through this evening, ahead of the cold front
forecast to enter the western Atlantic on Fri. Seas will build to
8-11 ft.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Frequent wind gusts to 40 kt are
occurring north of 27N and east of 90W. Frequent wind gusts to 35
kt are occurring from 22N to 27N between 87W and 90W. Seas are
currently 8-12 ft. By later this morning, winds are expected to diminish
to strong speeds with seas marginally subsiding to 8-11 ft.
Conditions across the northern Gulf will continue improving
through the day.

For more information on both warnings, please see the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends
from 01N21W to 02S30W to 01N41W to the coast of Brazil near
01S47W. Scattered showers are north of the ITCZ to 08N between 25W
and 50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is south
of the ITCZ outside of the discussion area.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning.

At 31/0300 UTC, a trough extends south from New Orleans, Louisiana
to 24N95W. According to NWS Radar Data, scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is occurring along the northernmost
portions of the trough in coastal waters that include the
Mississippi Delta and Chandeleur Sound. Also at 31/0300 UTC, a
cold front is analyzed in the NW Gulf from the coast of Louisiana
near 30N93W to the coast of Texas near 27N97W. A pair of weak
surface troughs are analyzed in the Bay of Campeche. East of 90W,
fresh to strong S winds were detected by the latest scatterometer
pass. A small area of near-gale force S winds were detected by the
same pass near 26N85W. West of 90W, E winds of moderate speeds are
noted. Seas are 8-10 ft north of 23N across the basin, increasing
to 10-12 ft in the north-central Gulf north of 29N from 86W to
88W. South of 23N, seas are 5-8 ft, except in the E Bay of
Campeche where seas are 3-5 ft.

The last visible satellite images before sunset and more recent
infrared imagery indicate several ongoing fires inland over South
Texas and NE Mexico, with smoke blowing east over the west-
central Gulf. Earlier images from National Data Buoy Center's buoy
cameras and surface observations indicate that the smoke remains
aloft at this time. If mariners encounter reduced visibilities due
to smoke, they are encouraged to report the observation to the
National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4425.

For the forecast, strong southerly flow, with frequent gusts to
gale force, are expected across much of the basin north of 22N,
with these hazardous marine conditions gradually diminishing and
improving from west to east through tonight. A strong pressure
gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and a
deepening low pressure over Texas and northeastern Mexico supports
these wind speeds. A cold front along the Texas coast will reach
from the near Pensacola, Florida to 26N91W and to inland southern
Texas early on Thu, and from the Florida Big Bend to near Tuxpan,
Mexico by Thu evening. The front will become stationary from
central Florida to the central Gulf near 27N90W, and to southern
Texas by late on Fri and through Sat. Its western part will begin
to lift back north as a warm front through Mon as southerly return
flow begins to dominate the Gulf. A line of strong to severe
thunderstorms will precede the front over the far northern waters
tonight through early on Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Ridging associated with high pressure off the SE US Coast
dominates the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh trades are noted
over most of the basin, except in the south-central Caribbean,
Windward Passage, and Gulf of Honduras where the trades pulse to
strong and near-gale force speeds. Seas are 5-7 ft across the
Caribbean, peaking at 8 ft in the south-central Caribbean,
Windward Passage, and Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue
to sustain fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean
near the coast of Colombia, across the Windward Passage to south
of Jamaica, south of the Dominican Republic, in the lee of Cuba,
and in the Gulf of Honduras through late Fri night, except
diminishing in the Lee of Cuba and across the Windward passage by
early on Fri. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere.
Moderate to fresh trade winds along with larger trade-wind swell
will continue east of the Lesser Antilles through Fri. Winds will
diminish across much of the basin during the upcoming weekend as
the high pressure weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning.

A cold front extends from 31N48W to 25N56W, where a dissipating
stationary front then continues to Hispaniola. Fresh to locally
strong E to SE winds are occurring north of the decaying boundary
to 25N west of 65W according to the latest scatterometer data,
including approaches to the Windward Passage, the Florida Straits,
and Florida coastal waters. Seas are 5-8 ft north of the
boundary. An area of 8-10 ft seas in NW swell is north of 28N
between 49W and 66W.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, the Azores High supports
moderate NE to E winds and 5-7 ft seas. Recent scatterometer data
indicates NE winds are fresh within 180 nm of the coast of
Africa.

For the forecast west of 65W, fresh to strong easterly winds are
forecast across the waters south of 23N- 24N through Thu. Strong
southerly winds, with frequent gusts to gale force are expected
off northeastern Florida beginning late tonight and through early
Thu evening ahead of a cold front forecast to move across the
waters offshore northeastern Florida early on Fri, then across the
northern waters through Sat. The front is forecast to become
stationary across the central waters during the weekend and
gradually weaken into early next week. Scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected to precede the front Thu and Thu night.
Fairly tranquil marine conditions are forecast for the start of
next week.

$$
Mahoney
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