[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302305
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Mar 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2255 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong southerly winds with frequent gusts
to gale force are expected off NE Florida early Thu morning
through evening, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter
the western Atlantic on Fri. Wave heights of 9-11 ft are expected
with these winds by Thu morning.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A scatterometer satellite pass a few
hours ago captured strong to locally near gale-force southerly
winds affecting most of the Gulf of Mexico. Strong southerly flow
with frequent gusts to gale force will continue to spread to the
eastern Gulf tonight. Seas are peaking at at 10 to 14 ft,
primarily N of 25N, and will propagate eastward tonight and Thu
morning. Conditions are forecast start to improve by late Thu
morning.

For more information on both warnings, please see the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough continues to be located over Africa. The ITCZ
extends from 01N20W to 01S32W to 01N45W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is occurring north of the Equator to
05N and between 24W to 47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning.

As of 2100 UTC, a cold front is moving across the NW Gulf of
Mexico, extending from SW Louisiana to Tamaulipas, Mexico. A line
of cloudiness and a few showers are seen ahead of the frontal
boundary N of 24N, but the most significant weather is occurring
inland over the Mississippi Valley. The rest of the basin is
dominated by 1026 mb high pressure system located between Bermuda
and the Outer Banks. The pressure gradient between this system and
the lower pressures associated with the storm system over the
central US and associated cold front is resulting in the Gale
Warning described in the Special Features. Moderate to fresh S
winds with seas at 7 to 10 ft are found W of 95W. Fresh SE winds
and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail over the E Gulf. Areas of smoke
could be reducing visibilities within 90 nm of the coast of Mexico
between Veracruz and the Mouth of the Rio Grande River, due to
agricultural fires in Mexico.

For the forecast, strong southerly flow, with frequent gusts to gale
force, are expected across much of the basin north of 22N, with
these hazardous marine conditions gradually diminishing and
improving from west to east through tonight. A strong pressure
gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and a
deepening low pressure over Texas and NE Mexico supports these
wind speeds. A cold front in the Texas coastal waters will
extend from the Florida Big Bend to near Tuxpan, Mexico by Thu
evening, becoming stationary while drifting northward through
Sat. Southerly return flow will dominate by the end of the
weekend into early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1026 mb high pressure system centered between Bermuda and the
Outer Banks extends into the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient
between this subtropical ridge and lower pressures in NW South
America result in fresh to strong trades across the central and
western Caribbean Sea. The strongest winds are affecting the
Windward Passage and offshore NW Colombia. Seas of 5-8 ft are
found in the central and western Caribbean Sea, with the highest
seas occurring offshore NW Colombia and E Panama. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker easterly winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to
promote fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean
near the coast of Colombia, across the Windward Passage to south
of Jamaica, south of the Dominican Republic, in the lee of Cuba,
and in the Gulf of Honduras through the week, diminishing in the
Lee of Cuba and across the Windward passage by late tonight.
Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate to
fresh trade winds along with larger trade-wind swell will
persist east of the Lesser Antilles through Fri. Winds will
diminish somewhat across the basin for the upcoming weekend as
the high pressure weakens.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning.

A cold front extends from 31N48W to 25N57W, where it transitions
into a stationary front to Hispaniola. A few showers are observed
near the frontal boundary. Fresh to locally strong anticyclonic
winds are occurring behind the frontal boundary to offshore
Florida. The strongest winds are present between Haiti and the
eastern Bahamas, including the entrance of the Windward Passage. Seas
greater than 8 ft are found N of 28N and between 51W and 67W. In
the remaining area behind the front, seas are 5-8 ft.

A 1024 mb high pressure system near the Azores dominates the rest
of the tropical Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh trades and
seas of 6-8 ft are noted S of 22N and between 30W and the Lesser
Antilles. Fresh to locally strong NE-NW winds are found E of 20W,
with the strongest winds occurring near the African coast. Seas in
this area are 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds with seas of 4-6
ft prevail in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, a nearly stationary front extending from 22N65W to
the north coast of Hispaniola will continue to support scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms as well as some gusty winds
over Hispaniola and the adjacent waters likely through tonight.
Fresh to strong easterly winds are forecast across the waters
south of 23N-24N through Thu. Strong southerly winds, with
frequent gusts to gale force are expected off NE Florida Thu and
Thu night ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the
western Atlantic on Fri. The front will move across the N waters
on Sat, then stall and begin to drift northward on Sun while
weakening. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are forecast for the
start of next week.

$$
DELGADO
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