[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231704
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Mar 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Winds off the coast of Colombia are
currently NE-E 25-30 kt, according to ASCAT data from late Wed
morning. Winds are forecast to pulse to gale force tonight and
again Thu night. Seas will peak around 12-13 ft early Thu morning.
Winds and seas should gradually diminish by the weekend. Please
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to
02N19W. The ITCZ continues from 02N19W to 01S31W to the coast of
Brazil near 01N50W. Isolated moderate convection is seen from 03N
to 05N, east of 18W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted south of 02N and west of 26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Destin, Florida to 24N90W to the south-
central Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. A pre-frontal squall line
extends off the eastern Florida Panhandle into the northeast
Gulf, from 30N84W to 27N86.5W at 1500 UTC. Frequent lightning and
gusty winds can be expected with the squall line. Recent buoy data
shows seas of 7 ft over the northeast Gulf, but seas are likely up
to 8 ft near the squall line. A pre-frontal trough extends across
the eastern Bay of Campeche from 21.5N92W to 18.5N92W. Fresh to
strong NW to N winds are noted west of the front, with fresh S
winds east of the front. Seas are 6-8 ft over much of the
northern, west-central, and southwest Gulf. Seas are 4-6 ft over
the SE Gulf and near the coast of Texas.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach the SE
Gulf tonight, and move just SE of the basin by Thu night. Fresh
to strong northerly winds are expected behind the front through
tonight, mostly in the SW Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms will
continue along the front through Thu. A weak cold front will
enter the NW Gulf by early Thu afternoon, bringing fresh to
locally strong SW winds ahead of it and moderate to fresh NW winds
behind it. The front will weaken as it approaches the eastern Gulf
by Fri afternoon and exit by Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia.

Mid-level anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin, which is
leading to subsidence and mostly dry conditions. An area of
cloudiness with possible isolated showers is noted to the south
of Hispaniola, moving westward in the trade wind flow. A recent
ASCAT pass shows fresh trades over most of the basin. However,
strong trades are noted in the south-central Caribbean, from
11N-14N between 72W-78W. ASCAT also shows strong E to SE winds
in the Gulf of Honduras. Strong E winds are also likely occurring
to the south of Hispaniola. Altimeter satellite wave data from
earlier this morning shows seas up to 7-9 ft in the Gulf of
Honduras and 10-12 ft offshore of Colombia. Seas are likely 6-8 ft
elsewhere over the central Caribbean, 5-7 ft in the E Caribbean,
and 3-5 ft to the south of Cuba.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
pulsing winds to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia
tonight and Thu night. Fresh to strong winds will prevail across
the central Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh to strong winds are
expected to pulse again tonight in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to
locally strong winds will prevail in the eastern Caribbean
through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Recent buoy data offshore NE Florida is measuring fresh southerly
winds, ahead of a cold front located west of the area. Although
available observations only show fresh winds in the area, models
and the official TAFB forecast suggest that fresh to strong S
winds are likely occurring off northern Florida. Seas are likely
5-7 ft in this area. A 1025 mb high pressure is centered near
31N69W. Recent ASCAT data show fresh trades south of 23N and west
of 65W, where seas are likely 6-7 ft, and moderate to fresh SE
winds through the central and NW Bahamas. Gentle to moderate winds
generally prevail north of 26N between 60W-70W. Seas are 4-5 ft
north of 27N between 65W-77W.

Farther east, a dissipating cold front extends from 31N47W to
24N61W. A 60-nm wide line of clouds and isolated showers
accompanies the dying front. Over the central Atlantic, ASCAT
shows fresh winds north of 30N between 40W-57W, due to a large,
gale-force low pressure system well north of the area near 44N44W.
NW to N swell from that system is likely currently reaching as
far south as 29N, with seas of 8-10 ft from 29N-31N over the
central Atlantic. Surface ridging prevails from a 1029 mb high
pressure near 34N29W to 26N40W to 25N52W. Gentle winds are within
a few hundred nm of the ridge axis, where seas are 5-6 ft. Fresh
to strong NE winds are noted in the latest ASCAT pass from the
Cabo Verde Islands to 23N, east of 30W. Seas are 10-11 ft in this
area. Generally fresh trades prevail from 05N-15N across the
tropical Atlantic, with 7-9 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 65W, fresh winds will pulse to strong
nightly offshore Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage through
Thu night. Fresh to strong SE to S winds off NE Florida will
continue through Thu. A cold front will push off the NE Florida
coast by Thu afternoon with the fresh to strong southerly winds
persisting ahead of the front over the waters N of 27N through
Fri. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely with the front
Thu through Fri. A second cold front will move into the western
Atlantic late Fri, bringing fresh to locally strong winds behind
it. A third cold front is expected to move southward across the
western Atlantic Sat night with strong westerly winds following it
through Sun.

For the forecast east of 65W, a low pressure system late this week
near the Azores will extend a cold front south-southwestward,
bringing strong to near gale force winds to the area north of 25N
between 25W-50W, Thu night through Fri night. Seas are forecast to
build to 11-14 ft over the area.

$$
Hagen
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