[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231006
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Mar 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Winds off the coast of Colombia are
currently NE strong breeze and are pulsing to gale force tonight
and again Thu night. Seas will peak around 12 ft overnight and on
Wed night in the highest winds. Winds and seas should gradually
diminish by the weekend. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from coast of Liberia near 06N11W to
04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 00N25W to the coast of
Brazil near 02S43W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted south of 02N and west of 24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from the Alabama coast near
30N88W to Veracruz, Mexico near 19N96W. A squall line extends off
the Florida Panhandle into the northeast Gulf, from 30N86W to
28N88W. Frequent lightning and gusty winds can be expected with
this. Seas are 8 ft in this area. A trough extends across the
eastern Bay of Campeche from 24N90W to 19N92W. Fresh to strong
winds are noted on either side of the front. Seas range 4-7 ft
outside of the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds are expected
across the eastern Gulf through this morning ahead of the cold
front. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected behind the
front through Thu night, mostly in the southwest Gulf. The front
will reach the SE waters by Wed night, and move just SE of the
area by Thu night. Showers and thunderstorms will continue along
the front through Thu. A weak cold front will enter the NW Gulf on
Thu morning and bring moderate to fresh winds behind it. The
front will approach the eastern Gulf by Fri afternoon and exit by
Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia.

Outside of the gale warning area, fresh E trades prevail over the
central Caribbean with 6-8 ft seas. The latest observations
indicate moderate E trades in the Eastern Caribbean, with seas of
4-6 ft. In the W Caribbean, SE trades are moderate and seas are
4-6 ft. While no significant convection is apparent on satellite
across the Caribbean, patches of low- level moisture embedded in
the trade flow may produce isolated showers tonight.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
pulsing winds to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia
tonight and Thu night. Fresh to strong winds will prevail across
the central Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh to strong winds are
expected in the Gulf of Honduras to pulse again tonight. Fresh to
locally strong winds will prevail in the eastern Caribbean
through Fri. Fresh trade winds, along with large trade- wind
swell, across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones will persist
during the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are likely off the NE
Florida coast ahead of the strong cold front in the Gulf of
Mexico. Seas range 5-7 ft across the western Atlantic. A cold
front extends across the central Atlantic from 31N49W to 24N62W.
Moderate to fresh westerly winds prevail west of the strong, with
moderate to fresh southerly winds ahead of the front. Seas range
8-9 ft E of 50W. Across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic,
fresh to locally strong NE trades prevail with 8-11 ft seas in N
swell.

For the forecast west of 65W, fresh winds will pulse to strong
nightly offshore Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage through
Thu night. Fresh to strong SE to S winds are expected to develop
off NE Florida from this morning and continue through Thu. A cold
front will push off the NE Florida coast by Thu afternoon with the
fresh to strong southerly winds persisting ahead of the front
over the waters N of 27N through Fri. A second cold front will
move into the western Atlantic late Fri, bringing fresh to locally
strong winds behind it. A third cold front is expected to
southward across the western Atlantic Sat night with strong
westerly winds following it through Sun.

$$
AReinhart
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