[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182316
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Mar 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 00N21W. The ITCZ continues from 00N21W to the Brazilian
coast near 02S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from the equator to 05N between 20W and 25W, and from
00N to 03N between 45W and 51W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from the coast of Mississippi
near 30N89W to just N of Veracruz, Mexico. A band of showers and
thunderstorms is ahead of the front affecting the SE CONUS, and
also the north-central Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh southerly
winds prevail ahead of the front while fresh to strong northerly
winds follow the front. Latest observations from Tampico, Mexico
indicate gusty winds of 30 kt. Seas are generally 4-6 ft across
the basin, with the exception of 2-3 ft over the eastern Gulf E
of 85W to the coast of Florida, and just W of the Yucatan peninsula.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move E through
the Gulf Sat, stall in the SE Gulf Sun, then retreat northward
as a warm front Mon. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are expected
behind the front in the western Gulf tonight and Sat, with strong
southerly winds expected for the start of next week in association
with the warm front over the western and central Gulf. The next
cold front may enter the NW Gulf Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The most recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong trade
winds across the east and central Caribbean, with the strongest
winds of 25-30 kt near the coast of Colombia. Moderate to locally
fresh SE winds prevail in the NW Caribbean. Seas of 6-8 ft are
in the eastern and central Caribbean, with higher seas of 8-10 ft
occurring off NW Colombia. Seas of 4-6 ft are elsewhere, except
in the lee of Cuba, and in the Windward passage where seas of
1-3 ft are observed.

Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow,
are moving across the area producing isolated to scattered
passing showers. The trade wind flow is transporting these
patches of moisture into Nicaragua and NE Honduras where some
shower activity is noted. Visible satellite imagery show the
streamers downwind of the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
mainly fresh trade winds along with large trade-wind swell
across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones through the forecast
period. Fresh to strong winds will also prevail across the central
and eastern Caribbean during this time. Seas are forecast to
build to 10-12 ft near the coast of Colombia with the strongest
winds. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Honduras tonight and Sat. A weak cold front may approach the
Yucatan Channel this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating cold front extends from 31N69W 27N75W. Some shower
activity is associated with the frontal boundary. Farther E,
another cold front enters the forecast area near 31N26W, then
continues SW to near 26N41W where it begins to dissipate.
Moderate NE winds are in the wake of the front with seas of 8-12
ft in NW swell. Patches of low level clouds, with possible
showers, are along the front. A 1029 mb high pressure located
over the central Atlantic near 36N43W dominates the remainder of
the forecast waters. The most recent satellite derived wind data
indicate fresh to strong trades E of the Lesser Antilles to about
48W. Seas of 8-10 ft are occurring within this area of winds.

For the forecast W of 65W, high pressure centered north of the
area will support pulsing of fresh to strong winds north of
Hispaniola into early next week. As the ridge retreats eastward,
a cold front will move off the coast of Florida Sat, and reach
from near Bermuda to the Florida Straits by Mon.

$$
GR
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