[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181627
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Mar 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1620 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to the central Atlantic near 01N22W. The ITCZ continues
from 01N22W to the Brazilian coast near 03S45W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted south of 04N between 15W and 38W. A
second area of scattered moderate with isolated strong convection
is noted within 300 nm on the cast of Brazil between 01S and 05N.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure is centered over northern Florida. Moderate to
fresh southerly return flow prevails across much of the central
Gulf. Seas over this area are in the 4-6 ft range. Winds have
decreased to gentle in the west central Gulf.

For the forecast, a cold front will move off the Texas coast
today, then move E through the Gulf through the weekend. Fresh to
locally strong NW winds are expected behind the front in the
western Gulf, with fresh S winds ahead of it over the northern
Gulf. Early next week, strong southerly return flow will develop
over the western and central Gulf, in advance of the next cold
front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong easterly winds prevail across the central and
eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas
are 8-10 ft in the south-central Caribbean, 6-8 ft in the north-
central and eastern Caribbean, and 3-5 ft in the northwest
Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
mainly fresh trade winds along with large trade-wind swell across
the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones through the forecast period.
Fresh to strong winds will also prevail across the central and
eastern Caribbean during this time. Fresh to strong E to SE winds
will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Sat. A weak cold
front may enter the Yucatan Channel by the end of the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends across the NW subtropical Atlantic from
31N71W to south central Florida near 27N80W. No significant
impacts are observed from this feature with gentle winds and
slight to moderate seas on either side of the boundary. High
pressure north of the area in the central Atlantic is causing
anticyclonic flow across the basin. A cold front extends across
the central subtropical Atlantic from 31N31W to 25N53W where it
becomes stationary and continues to 28N60W. Winds are moderate
behind these features and gentle ahead, though winds increase to
fresh south of 20N in the western and central Atlantic, where
seas are 8-10 ft. Winds are generally moderate or lighter in the
eastern Atlantic with 12-14 second long period swell from the
north reaching up to 12 ft between the Cabo Verde and Canary
Islands.

For the forecast W of 65W, high pressure centered north of the
area will support pulsing of fresh to strong winds north of
Hispaniola into early next week. As the ridge retreats eastward, a
cold front will move off the coast of Florida Sat, and reach from
near Bermuda to western Cuba by Mon.

$$
FLYNN
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