[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170536
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Mar 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains over central Africa. An ITCZ extends
southwestward from SW of Liberia near 04N10W through EQ28W to NW
of Fortaleza, Brazil near 02S40W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed from 04S to 06N between 08W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front curves southwestward from N and central Florida
through near Tampa to W of the Florida Keys at 25N84W. Scattered
showers are occurring E of the front across central Florida. A
surface trough is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms
over the Yucatan Peninsula. Otherwise, a dome of 1017 mb high
located over the central Gulf is supporting gentle to moderate
winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft for the central and E Gulf. Moderate
SE return flow with 3 to 4 ft seas are present over the W Gulf.

For the forecast, the front will gradually stall and dissipate
during Thu morning. Moderate to fresh return flow will set up
across the W Gulf Thu evening ahead of the next cold front to
enter the NW Gulf Fri morning. This front will reach from the
Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico Sat morning, and stall
from S Florida to the central Gulf Sun morning where it will
dissipate. E to SE moderate to fresh winds will prevail behind
this front across the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A subtropical ridge over the W central Atlantic continues to
support NE to ENE trades across the Caribbean Sea. Convergent
trade winds are producing scattered showers and thunderstorms near
the Panama-Colombia border and adjacent Caribbean waters. Patchy
trade-wind showers are moving across the central basin, S of Haiti
and Jamaica. Moderate to fresh with locally strong trades and
seas at 6 to 8 ft are seen across the E and central basin. Gentle
to moderate trades with seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of
the basin.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will maintain fresh to
occasionally strong trade winds along with large trade-wind swell
across the Atlantic waters near the Lesser Antilles through early
this weekend. Fresh to strong winds will also prevail across the
central Caribbean during this time. Fresh to strong E to SE winds
will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Thu and Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are erupting E of a cold
front located over N Florida, N of the Bahamas between 75W and
80W. Another cold front curves southwestward from the N central
Atlantic across 31N50W to 29N62W, then continues west-
northwestward as a stationary front to beyond S of Bermuda at
21N67W. Patchy showers are seen N of 28N between 50W and 65W. A
surface trough is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms N of
Sao Luis, Brazil from the Equator to 06N between 40W and 48W.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in
the Atlantic Basin.

Residual northerly swell along with wind waves created by moderate
to fresh NE trades are sustaining 8 to 11 ft seas near the Canary
Islands, N of 20N between the NW African coast and 35W. Farther S
and SW, moderate to fresh trades along with 8 to 10 ft seas are
evident on the latest satellite ASCAT and altimetery data from the
Equator to 20N between 35W and 61W/Lesser Antilles. Moderate with
locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are seen from
the Greater Antilles to 25N/Central Bahamas between 61W and the S
Florida coast. Light to gentle with locally moderate winds and
seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast W of 65W, the Bermuda High will support pulsing
of fresh to strong winds N of Hispaniola through the week. The
high will retreat eastward this weekend enabling a cold front to
move off the coast of Florida by Sun morning. The front will
extend from near Bermuda to S Florida on Mon.

$$

Chan
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net