[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162255
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Mar 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends across western Africa and terminates
along the coast of Gambia near 13.5N16.5W. The ITCZ continues
from 04N11W to 00N24W to 02S38W. A surface trough is noted west
of the ITCZ from 05N37W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from
05S to 05N and W of 33W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is present S of 04.5N to Brazil between 36W-44W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front is moving slowly eastward across the eastern
Gulf, and extends from the Florida Bid Bend near 30N84W to near
24N88W. A surface trough is analyzed W of the front from the
Florida Panhandle coast near 30N86W to 26N91W. Another surface
trough is located in the central Bay of Campeche extending NE to
near 23N90W. No significant convection is associated with these
features. Broken low and middle level clouds prevail E of the
front to the W coast of Florida, where widely scattered weak
showers are offshore between Tampa Bay and Cape Coral. A lone
cluster of moderate convection is seen just N of the Yucatan
Channel near 22.5N88.5W. The rest of the Gulf to the NW is
dominated by a dry stable airmass. Moderate westerly winds prevail
across the N central Gulf behind or weaker winds and seas of 2-5
ft prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will progress
southeastward and reach from south Florida to near the N Yucatan
Peninsula late this evening where it will stall and dissipate
overnight. Moderate to fresh return flow will set up across the W
Gulf Thu evening ahead of the next cold front to enter the NW Gulf
Fri morning. This front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to
near Tampico, Mexico Sat morning, and stall from south Florida to
the central Gulf Sun morning where it will dissipate. Mainly
moderate to fresh winds will prevail behind this front

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends to the
Straits of Florida, and supports mostly easterly tradewinds across
the basin S of 18N. Mostly fair weather prevails with a few
patches of low to middle level clouds and isolated showers across
central portions N of 13N. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressures over northern South America is resulting
in fresh to locally strong trades across the central and eastern
Caribbean Sea. Seas of 7-10 ft prevail in the central and eastern
Caribbean due to persistent easterly Atlantic tradewind swell.
The highest seas are occurring off NW Colombia. The rest of the
NW basin is under moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh
to occasionally strong trade winds along with large trade-wind
swell across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones through the
forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will also prevail across
the central Caribbean during this time. Fresh to strong E to SE
winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Thu and Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed from 29.5N80W to near 32N70W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen mainly within 120 nm to the S of
trough axis and extends W to near the Florida coast. The pressure
gradient between this trough and a strong high pressure over the
eastern United States result in fresh to strong SE winds to the
north of the trough.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by the subtropical
ridge anchored by high pressure located near the Azores,
promoting fairly tranquil weather conditions from the coast of
Africa to the Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics is
allowing for fresh to locally strong easterly winds between
Africa and the Bahamas, mainly S of 23N. The broad easterly fetch
is resulting in seas greater than 8 ft covering most of the
eastern and central Atlantic, and extending to the Lesser Antilles
and Puerto Rico. The highest seas of around 10 ft are found S of
22N and E of 50W. Strong N-NE winds are occurring in the far NE
tropical Atlantic, mainly off Morocco to just N of the Canary
Island chain, where seas are 10-15 ft.

For the forecast west of 65W, a ridge of high pressure across the area
will support pulsing of fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola
through the week. Large easterly tradewind swell will persist
south of 23N and E of 70W through tonight before gradually
Fri. The ridge will retreat eastward this weekend enabling a cold
front to move off the coast of Florida by Sun morning. The front
will extend from near Bermuda to south Florida late Sun night.

$$
Stripling
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