[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Mar 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 03N19W. An ITCZ continues from 03N19W to just N of Brazil
near 02S39W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near these
features from 02S to 04N between 13W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An occluded front reaches southward from a low near the
Mississippi- Alabama border to S of Panama City, Florida at
29N86W. A cold front curves southwestward from this point through
the S central Gulf to the W Bay of Campeche. A stationary front
also extends eastward from the same point across central Florida.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring N of 22N, up to
150 nm E of the cold front; and also near the stationary front
across the Big Band area, central and N Florida. Farther S, a
surface trough is triggering similar weather over the Yucatan
Peninsula. Gentle to moderate northerly winds with seas at 4 to 6
ft are present over the N central and W Gulf. Gentle southerly
winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, as the low lifts northeastward across the SE
U.S. overnight, the cold/occluded fronts over the Gulf will begin
to weaken then dissipate on Wed. Active convection related to
these fronts will linger over the NE and E central Gulf tonight.
Moderate to fresh return flow will set up across the W Gulf Thu
evening ahead of the next cold front to enter the NW Gulf Fri
morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong ridge of high pressure across the N Atlantic will prolong a
ENE trade-wind pattern over the basin. Scattered trade-wind
showers are evident near Puerto Rico, the Virgin and Leeward
Islands. Fresh to locally strong trades and seas of 7 to 10 ft
are found over the E and central Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate
trades and seas at 4 to 7 ft prevail for the W basin.

For the forecast, high pressure will sustain fresh to strong
trade winds across the Tropical Atlantic and central Caribbean
through the week. Large trade-wind swell is also present for the
Tropical Atlantic. Expect fresh to strong E to SE winds off
Honduras Thu evening through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front extends west-southwestward from E of
Bermuda across 31N59W to near Melbourne, Florida. Scattered
showers are occurring near this feature N of 28N between 63W and
the N Florida coast. A surface trough is coupling with divergent
flow aloft to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms along
the Brazilian coast near Sao Luis. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic
Basin.

Wind waves produced by fresh to strong northerly trades along
with large swell are producing 12 to 16 ft seas near and S of the
Canary Islands, N of 13N between the African coast and 32W.
Moderate to fresh with locally strong NE trades and seas of 9 to
11 ft are found from 08N to 26N between 32W and 61W/Lesser
Antilles. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas at 6 to 7 ft
are noted N of 28N between 70W and the N Florida coast. Gentle to
moderate winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail across the rest of
the basin.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will gradually
lift northward overnight with showers and thunderstorms persisting
offshore from the N Florida-Georgia coast through Wed morning.
Fresh to strong winds will pulse N of Hispaniola through the
week. Large easterly trade-wind swell will persist S of 23N and E
of 70W through Wed evening before gradually subsiding.

$$

Chan
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