[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152317
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Mar 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2240 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07.5N14W to 03.5N18W. The ITCZ then extends from 03.5N18W to
0.5N27W to 01N33W to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection, associated with the monsoon
trough, is from 00N to 06N east of 18W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted within 120 nm north of the ITCZ
between 18W and 48W, and from 00N to 03N between 48W and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 1800 UTC, a cold front is analyzed from 1015 mb low pressure
along the Mississippi-Alabama border near 31N8.5W, across the
Mississippi River Delta to 26N94.5W to the coast of Mexico near
23.5N98W. A quick moving outflow boundary ahead of the front is
analyzed from the western Florida Panhandle along 86.5W to
27.5N88W to 26N93.5W. Scattered moderate convection leads these
features in the NE Gulf north of 23N between 83W and 91W. Winds in
recent hours have been near-gale force in the strongest areas of
convection, with higher gusts possible. Fresh NW to W winds are
occurring behind the cold front in the northwest and north central Gulf,
with seas of 3-6 ft. In the northeast Gulf, ahead of the outflow
boundary and cold front, fresh to strong SE winds are occurring
with 3-8 ft seas. The active convection moving across this area
will be capable of producing gale force winds and stronger
an continuing across inland locations. In the southeast Gulf,
gentle to moderate SE winds are noted with 3-5 ft seas. In the
northeast fresh to locally strong southerly winds prevail with
seas are 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front will progress southeastward and
reach from the Florida Big Bend area to the eastern Bay of
Campeche later this evening, then drift SE and dissipate on Wed.
Fresh to strong southerly winds and very active weather will
continue across the NE Gulf ahead of this front thru tonight.
Moderate to fresh return flow will set up across the W Gulf Thu
evening ahead of the next cold front to enter the NW Gulf Fri
morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tight pressure gradient between high pressure north of the
area and the Colombian Low is sustaining fresh to strong trades
across the central Caribbean. In this area, seas are 7-10 ft
according to the latest satellite altimeter data. In the E
Caribbean, fresh trades are north of 14N with mainly moderate
trades south of 14N. Seas are also 6-9 ft in the E Caribbean.
Finally, in the W Caribbean, a more relaxed pressure gradient
supports moderate trades with 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, a strong Bermuda High moving eastward over the
NW Atlc will sustain fresh to strong trade winds along with large
trade-wind swell across the Tropical Atlantic and central
Caribbean through this weekend. Strong to near gale trades will
prevail N of Colombia today, then fresh to strong winds will pulse
each night through the forecast period. Expect fresh to strong E
to SE winds off Honduras Thu evening through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the area at 31N61W, continuing to
27N66W, then terminating as a shearline over the Bahamas near
26N77W. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are occurring north of
the boundary between 73W and the N Bahamas. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring N of the boundary to 30N between 65W and
73W.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by fresh to
strong trades along the southern flank of 1029 mb high pressure
near 33N40W. This pattern is supporting widespread 8-11 ft seas
in E swell, with peak seas to 12 ft between 16N-20N and E of 43W
as measured by a recent satellite altimeter pass. In the E
Atlantic, north of Cabo Verde and east of 35W, strong N to NE winds
are noted with seas of 11-16 ft in N swell. A significant
outbreak of Saharan air and associated African dust has been
transported across a very large area of the eastern Atlantic by a
deep layered upper level low pressure center currently over NW
Africa. Dust covers the area E of 25W to the coast of W Africa and
northward to coastal areas of Portugal and NW Spain.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will lift
northward today and eventually dissipate tonight. Moderate to
fresh winds and rough seas will persist near and up to 180 nm N of
this front through this evening, then slowly subside during mid
week. Large easterly tradewind swell will persist S of 23N and E
of 70W through Wed evening before gradually subsiding. Looking
ahead, a deepening low pressure off the Carolina coast is going to
cause fresh southerly winds N and NE of the Bahamas from late Wed
night through Thu afternoon.

$$
Stripling
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