[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051747
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Mar 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong high pressure centered south
of the Azores will continue to induce gale force northerly winds
offshore of Morocco through at least 06/0000 UTC in the marine
zones Agadir and Tarfaya. Seas are up to 13-16 ft in the area.
Please see the latest High Seas Forecast from Meteo-France at
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 01N23W to the
coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered showers are noted along the
ITCZ and monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging remains in place across the Gulf, sustaining
generally quiescent conditions. Fresh trades persist in the SE
Gulf and Florida Straits, according to surface reports and
scatterometer data, with seas of 4-7 ft. Elsewhere in the Gulf,
moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds prevail with seas of 3-5
ft.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail over Gulf basin
through this weekend. Fresh to strong, and seas to 9 ft, will
prevail over the SE Gulf this weekend, including the Straits of
Florida. Fresh southerly return flow will develop over the NW Gulf
through Sun night ahead of the next cold front. The cold front is
expected to move into the NW Gulf on Mon and reach from the
Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche Wed night. Fresh to strong
winds will prevail west of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

According to the latest scatterometer data, gentle to moderate
trades in the E Caribbean increase to moderate to fresh speeds in
the W Caribbean. Locally strong NE winds are noted in the
Windward Passage. Seas are 4-6 ft across the basin, except within
90 nm of the coast of Colombia in the south-central Caribbean
where seas peak at 7 ft. Patches of low level moisture within the
trade winds may produce isolated showers today.

For the forecast, building high pressure over the western
Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-
central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to strong
winds will prevail in the Windward Passage through Mon night with
fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba and the Dominican
Republic through Sun night. Moderate to fresh trades, along with 8
to 9 ft seas in persistent northeast to east swell, will continue
to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through at least
Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
an East Atlantic Gale Warning issued by Meteo-France.

The latest scatterometer data indicates that a shear line extends
from the north coast of Hispaniola near 19N69W to 27N60W. Strong
NE winds and 8-10 ft seas are located N of the shear line to 27N
and W of the shear line to the Bahamas. A trough extends from
27N60W to 31N50W. Scattered showers are noted within 120 nm of
both features. Elsewhere NW of the shear line, moderate to fresh
NE to E winds persist, with strong E winds noted off the S Florida
coast. Seas are 6-8 ft in this area, decreasing to 4-6 ft in far
NW portions of the discussion area.

The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by high pressure north
of the discussion area. According to the latest scatterometer
data, fresh to locally strong trades are noted over most of the
discussion area south of 27N, with 8-12 ft seas in NE swell. North
of 27N, trade winds are mainly moderate with seas of 6-8 ft. In
the far eastern Atlantic, strong to locally near gale force NE
winds were detected off the coast of Mauritania, within an area
from 19N to 21N east of 20W.

For the forecast W of 65W, high pressure will strengthen over the
western Atlantic today and tomorrow. This will tighten the
pressure gradient to support fresh to strong easterly winds over
most of the forecast waters. Seas are also expected to build to 13
ft east of the Bahamas tonight through Sun night. Conditions will
improve on Mon as the high pressure shifts eastward and gradually
weakens. Fresh southerly flow will develop east of northern
Florida Sun into early next week.

$$
Mahoney
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