[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Mar 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong high pressure centered south
of the Azores will continue to induce gale force northerly winds
offshore of Morocco through at least 06/0000 UTC in the marine
zones Agadir and Tarfaya. Seas are up to 13-16 ft in the area.
Please see the latest High Seas Forecast from Meteo-France at
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Sierra Leone and
Guinea near 09N13W to 09N16W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from
04N19W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted south of 06N between 15W and the coast of
South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging remains in place across the Gulf, keeping
tranquil conditions in place. Fresh to strong NE to E trade winds
are noted in the Florida Straits in latest scatterometer data.
Seas have recently built to 3-5 ft across the Florida Straits and
Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and seas of
1-3 ft prevail, except for light to gentle in the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue over the Gulf
basin. Fresh to strong winds will continue over the SE Gulf
today, including the Straits of Florida. Seas will build to 8 to
10 ft across the SE Gulf waters. Fresh southerly return flow
will develop over the NW Gulf through Sun night. A cold front is
expected to move into the NW Gulf on Mon and reach from the
Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid-level anticyclonic flow covers most the basin, which is
inducing subsidence and relatively dry conditions for most
areas. However, isolated moderate convection is noted near
Hispaniola, and a few light showers are possible near eastern
Cuba as well. A recent ASCAT pass depicts fresh to strong NE
winds within 60 nm of the south coast of Cuba between 77W-83W.
Seas are currently building to 4-5 ft in this area. Fresh winds
are noted in the south-central Caribbean, with locally strong near
the coast of Colombia, where seas are 5-7 ft. Mainly moderate
trades prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean. Seas are around 5-6
ft over the eastern Caribbean, and near 2-4 ft for the remainder
of the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, building high pressure over the western
Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to
strong winds are also expected in the Windward Passage through
Mon night. Strong winds are expected in the lee of Cuba and the
Dominican Republic tonight through Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in
effect for the E Atlantic.

A weakening stationary front extends from 31N54W to 25N63W. A
shear line is analyzed from 25N63W to 20N70W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along and within 120 nm NW of these
boundaries. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong NE
winds N of the front and shear line, while gentle E winds prevail
S of the boundaries. Seas are quickly building in this area of
strongest winds to 5-7 ft. Broad upper-level troughing is noted
over the western Atlantic. Recent scatterometer data shows
moderate winds north of 28N over the western Atlantic. Seas are
3-6 ft in this area.

The eastern half of the Atlantic Ocean is dominated by a 1030 mb
high pressure centered near 34N28W. The tight gradient attributed
to this high center supports a large area of fresh to strong
northeast to east winds from the ITCZ to 24N between 30W-57W, and
from 10N-31N, E of 30W, as noted in recent ASCAT wind data.
Recent altimeter passes show seas of 10-11 ft in this area, from
10N-23N between 25W-40W. The atmosphere is very dry and stable
over the eastern Atlantic. An extensive area of African dust is
observed over the far eastern Atlantic on satellite imagery.

For the forecast W of 65W, high pressure will continue to build
over the western Atlantic this weekend. This will lead to a tight
gradient which will bring strong easterly winds over most of the
forecast waters today and Sun. Seas are expected to build to 13 ft
east of the Bahamas starting tonight and continuing through Sun
night. Conditions will improve on Mon as the high pressure shifts
eastward and gradually weakens. Fresh southerly flow will develop
east of northern Florida Sun into early next week.

For the forecast E of 65W, moderate to fresh trades along with
persistent northeast to east swell will continue to impact the
waters east of the Lesser Antilles to 55W through at least Wed.
Seas will range between 8 to 10 ft in this area. Elsewhere, the
large area of fresh to strong trades and large seas over the
eastern half of the Atlantic will improve slightly late Sun into
Mon.

$$
ERA
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