[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040948
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Mar 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from coastal Africa near 09N13W to
03N17W where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 03S39W.
Scattered moderate convection is north of the boundaries from 00N
to 05N between 20W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A high pressure center of 1024 mb remains over the north-central
Gulf, keeping tranquil conditions in place. Gentle anticyclonic
flow covers the basin, except for moderate NE to E winds in the SE
Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche. Altimeter data and buoy
observations show wave heights in the range of 1 to 3 ft
throughout, except for slighter higher wave heights of 3 to 4 ft
in the SE Gulf and the eastern Bay of Campeche.

As for the forecast, high pressure centered over the north-
central Gulf will continue to support gentle to moderate winds
across the basin today. The pressure gradient is forecast to
strengthen over the Gulf during the upcoming weekend as the strong
high pressure shifts over the western Atlantic. This will bring
fresh to strong east winds over the SE Gulf, including the Straits
of Florida, and fresh southerly return flow over the NW Gulf
through Sun night. Seas will range from 8 to 10 ft across the SE
gulf waters. A cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf on
Mon and reach from Alabama to the western Gulf on Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Latest scatterometer data depicted fresh to strong E winds
continuing within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia in the south-
central Caribbean, while fresh to locally strong NE winds prevail
south of 15N and in the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate
trade winds prevail north of 15N. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the
eastern Caribbean, 4 to 7 ft in the central basin reaching heights
of 9 ft off the coast of Colombia, and 3 ft or less in the NW
basin.

As for the forecast, building high pressure over the western Atlantic
will support pulsing fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central
Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds are
also expected in the Windward Passage Fri night through Mon
night. Fresh to strong winds are possible in the lee of Cuba and
the Dominican Republic Sat night through Sun night. Moderate to
fresh trades along with persistent northeast to east swell will
continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through
at least Tue. Seas will range between 8 to 9 ft with the
strongest winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is analyzed from near 31N53W to 28N57W. A surface
trough extends SW from the end of the front to the U.S. Virgin
Islands. High pressure is building behind the boundary, leaving
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and subsiding seas ranging
from 3 to 5 ft in its wake in the western Atlantic. A recent
scatterometer pass noted fresh S-SW winds within 90 nm ahead of
the front and north of 29N.

In the far eastern Atlantic, surface high pressure of 1032 mb is
centered just north of the area near 32N30W. A ridge extends from
this high center west-southwest to 27N50W. A tight gradient
between this high and relatively lower pressure to the south is
sustaining a large area of fresh to strong east winds south of
about 25N and east of 61W, including over the Lesser Antilles.
Wave heights with these winds are in the 8 to 11 ft range. In the
far northeast part of the area, strong northeast winds are over
and near the Canary Islands, and south of the Islands to 20N
between the coast of Africa and 25W.

As for the forecast W of 65W, the aforementioned cold front will
continue weakening over the central Atlantic today. Strong high
pressure will then build over the western Atlantic during the
upcoming weekend. This will lead to a tight gradient which will
bring fresh to strong easterly winds over most of the forecast
waters. Seas are also expected to build to 12 ft east of the
Bahamas by Sat night and continue through Sun night. Conditions
will improve on Mon as the high pressure shifts eastward and
gradually weakens. Fresh southerly flow will develop east of
northern Florida Sun into early next week.

$$
ERA
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