[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Mar 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 01N20W where it transitions to the ITCZ and
continues from 01N20W to 02S30W to 01S40W. Scattered moderate
convection is north of the ITCZ from 00N to 04N between 30W and
40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A high pressure center of 1023 mb remains over the north-central
Gulf, keeping tranquil conditions in place. Light to gentle
anticyclonic flow covers the basin, except for moderate NE to E
winds in the SE Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche. Altimeter data
and buoy observations show wave heights in the range of 1 to 3
ft throughout, except for slighter higher wave heights of 3 to 4
ft in the SE Gulf and the eastern Bay of Campeche.

As for the forecast, high pressure centered over the
north-central Gulf will bring gentle to moderate winds across the
basin through Fri. The pressure gradient is forecast to strengthen
over the Gulf during the upcoming weekend as the strong high
pressure shifts over the western Atlantic. This will bring fresh
to strong east winds over the southeastern Gulf, including the
Straits of Florida, and fresh southerly return flow over the NW
Gulf through Sun night. A cold front is forecasted to move into
the NW Gulf on Mon and reach from Alabama to the western Gulf Tue
morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed fresh to strong E
winds continuing within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia in the
south-central Caribbean. Scatterometer data also showed areas of
fresh to locally strong NE winds within the southern Caribbean,
south of 15N, and within the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate
trade winds prevail across the rest of the eastern and central
Caribbean, north of 15N. Gentle to moderate NE winds are noted in
the NW basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the eastern Caribbean, 4 to 7
ft in the central basin reaching heights of 8 ft off the coast of
Colombia, and 3 ft or less in the NW basin.

As for the forecast, building high pressure over the western
Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the central
Caribbean through at least Tue. Fresh to strong winds are also
expected to continue in the Windward Passage Fri night through
Mon night. Fresh to strong winds are possible in the lee of Cuba
and the Dominican Republic Sat night through Sun night. Moderate
to fresh trades along with persistent northeast to east swell will
continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through
at least Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is analyzed from near 31N53W to 28N57W. High
pressure is building behind the boundary, leaving gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow and subsiding seas ranging from 3 to
5 ft in its wake in the western Atlantic. A recent scatterometer
pass noted fresh S-SW winds within 90 nm ahead of the front and
north of 29N. A trough extends SW from the end of the front to
the U.S. Virgin Islands. No significant convection is occurring
with this boundary.

In the far eastern Atlantic, strong high pressure of 1034 mb is
centered just north of the area near 32N29W. A ridge extends
from this high center west-southwest to 26N52W. A tight gradient
between this high and relatively lower pressure to the south is
sustaining a large area of fresh to strong east winds south of
about 25N and east of 61W, including over the Lesser Antilles.
Wave heights with these winds are in the 8 to 11 ft range. In the
far northeast part of the area, strong northeast winds are over
and near the Canary Islands, and south of the Islands to 20N
between the coast of Africa and 25W.

As for the forecast W of 65W, the aforementioned cold front will
continue weakening over the central Atlantic overnight. Strong
high pressure will then build over the western Atlantic during
the upcoming weekend. This will lead to a tight gradient which
will bring fresh to strong easterly winds over most of the
forecast waters. Seas are also expected to build to 12 ft east
of the Bahamas by Sat night and continue through Sun night.
Conditions will improve on Mon as the high pressure shifts
eastward and gradually weakens. Fresh southerly flow will
develop east of northern Florida Sun into early next week.

$$
Mora
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net