[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Mar 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to
00N24W to 01S38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south
of the monsoon trough from 01N to 12N between 10W and 16W.
Similar convection is noted north of the ITCZ to 04N between 21W
to 26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1022 mb is centered over the north-central Gulf
keeping anticyclonic flow in place over the basin. Moderate NE
winds are noted off the SE Florida coast in the SE Gulf and the
eastern Bay of Campeche, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. Recent buoy
and altimeter data note seas less than 3 ft elsewhere over the
Gulf, where winds are light to gentle.

For the forecast, the high pressure centered over the
north-central Gulf will control the weather pattern over the
region through the remainder of the week, resulting in gentle to
moderate northeast to east winds across the forecast waters. The
pressure gradient is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf during
the upcoming weekend as the high pressure shifts eastward into the
western Atlantic. This will bring fresh to occasionally strong
east winds over the southeastern Gulf, including the Straits of
Florida, and fresh southerly return flow over the NW Gulf through
Sun night. A cold front may move into the NW Gulf Mon and reach
from southeastern Louisiana to the western Gulf Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed fresh to strong
winds continuing off of Colombia in the south-central Caribbean.
Gentle to moderate trade winds prevail across the rest of the
eastern and central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate northerly winds
are noted in the NW basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the eastern
Caribbean, 4 to 7 ft in the central basin, and 3 ft or less in the
NW basin.

For the forecast, building high pressure over the western
Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong northeast to east trade
winds through Fri night, then expand in coverage over the central
Caribbean into next week. Moderate to fresh trades along with
persistent northeast to east swell will continue to impact the
waters east of the Lesser Antilles for the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N57W to 27N63W where the front
begins to dissipate. A recent satellite scatterometer pass
revealed, north of 29N, moderate W winds behind the front, and
fresh SW winds ahead of the front. Recent altimeter data notes 8
ft seas north of 30N and east of 60W associated with the frontal
boundary. High pressure building in the wake of the front is
allowing for gentle anticyclonic flow over the rest of the
western Atlantic, with moderate seas.

High pressure ridging extends across the central and eastern
Atlantic anchored by a 1034 mb high near 32N30W. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted north of 29N and E of 43W with seas 5
to 8 ft. Fresh to strong easterly winds are noted S of 29N and E
of the Lesser Antilles with seas 8 to 11 ft in northeast-east
swell. Strong NE winds are noted over the Canary Islands, and
south of the Islands to 20N between the coast of Africa and 25W.

For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front will stall and weaken
over the southeast and south-central waters through Fri night as
high pressure builds behind it. Stronger high pressure will then
build over the western Atlantic during the upcoming weekend,
with the resultant tight gradient leading to fresh to strong
easterly winds over most of the forecast waters. Seas will build
to around 11 ft east of the Bahamas by Sat night with the
increasing easterly flow. Conditions improve early next week as
the high pressure shifts eastward and gradually weakens. Fresh
southerly flow will develop east of northern Florida Sun into
early next week.

$$
Mora
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