[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022320
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Mar 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to
00N22W to 02S29W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N
to 05N between 10W and 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Ridging extends across the Gulf of Mexico anchored by a 1025 mb
high near 30N93W. Moderate NE winds are noted off the SW Florida
coast in the SE Gulf, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. No
significant convection is noted over the basin. Seas are up to 3
ft.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the north-central
Gulf will control the weather pattern over the region through the
remainder of the week, resulting in gentle to moderate northeast
to east winds across the forecast waters. The pressure gradient is
forecast to strengthen over the Gulf during the upcoming weekend
as the high pressure shifts eastward into the western Atlantic.
This will bring fresh to occasionally strong east winds over the
southeastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, and fresh
southerly return flow over the NW Gulf through Sun night. A cold
front may move into the NW Gulf Mon and reach from southeastern
Louisiana to the western Gulf Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scatterometer from earlier in the day showed fresh to strong winds
north of Colombia in the south-central Caribbean. Gentle to
moderate trade winds prevail across the rest of eastern and
central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are noted in
the NW basin. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the SW
Caribbean near a surface trough extending in the Pacific, S of 11N
between 73W and 82W. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the eastern Caribbean,
4 to 7 ft in the central basin, and 3 ft or less in the NW basin.

For the forecast, building high pressure over the western
Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong northeast to east trade
winds through Fri night, then expand in coverage over the central
Caribbean into next week. Moderate to fresh trades along with
persistent northeast to east swell will continue to impact the
waters east of the Lesser Antilles for the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends off the Florida coast from 31N79W to
24N81W. Showers are noted within 50 nm of it. Another trough
extends across the western Atlantic from 30N84W to near the
northern Bahamas near 26N77W. No significant convection is noted
with this feature. A cold front extends across the Atlantic from
31N61W to south of the Turks and Caicos near 20N73W. Showers are
noted along and within 100 nm east of the front. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted across the area with fresh southerly
winds ahead of the front. Seas range 5 to 8 ft. High pressure
ridging extends across the central and eastern Atlantic anchored
by a 1032 mb high near 32N32W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted
N of 28N and E of 46W with seas 5 to 7 ft. Fresh to strong
easterly winds are noted S of 28N and E of the Lesser Antilles
with seas 8 to 11 ft in northeast-east swell.

For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front will stall and weaken
over the southeast and south-central waters Thu through Fri night
as high pressure builds behind it. Stronger high pressure will
then build over the western Atlantic during the upcoming weekend,
with the resultant tight gradient leading to fresh to strong
easterly winds over most of the forecast waters. Seas will build
to around 11 ft east of the Bahamas by Sat night with the
increasing easterly flow. Conditions improve early next week as
the high pressure shifts eastward and gradually weakens. Fresh
southerly flow will develop east of northern Florida Sun into
early next week.

$$
AReinhart
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