[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021734
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Mar 02 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 06N11W, to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W, to
the Equator along 22W, to 02S30W. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is within 330 nm to the southeast of the monsoon
trough between 07W and 14W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
is elsewhere from 07N southward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow, and gentle to moderate
wind speeds, span the Gulf of Mexico. One 1024 mb high pressure
center is in southern Louisiana. A second 1024 mb high pressure
center is in central Mississippi.

The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the SW and SE
parts of the Gulf, including in the  Yucatan Channel. The sea
heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet elsewhere. Low level clouds
and possible areas of light rain remain in the SW Gulf. Cold air
stratocumulus clouds cover much of the rest of the basin, more
concentrated in the SE Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure centered in the north central Gulf, will control
the weather pattern in the region through the remainder of the
week. Expect gentle to moderate northeast to east winds. The
pressure gradient is forecast to strengthen in the Gulf of
Mexico during the upcoming weekend, as the high pressure shifts
eastward into the western Atlantic Ocean. This will bring fresh
to occasionally strong east winds to the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico, including in the Straits of Florida, and fresh southerly
return flow in the NW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mostly gentle, to some moderate winds, surround Hispaniola.
Moderate to fresh winds cover the remainder of the Caribbean
Sea. Northerly winds, that are in the western one-third of the
Caribbean Sea, are associated with a surface ridge that extends
across the Gulf of Mexico into the NW Caribbean Sea and in
northern parts of Central America. The N winds are pushing
stratocumulus clouds and patches of low level moisture, from the
SE Gulf of Mexico into western Cuba, through the Gulf of
Honduras into Honduras. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8
feet near the coast of Colombia. The sea heights range from 3
feet to 5 feet elsewhere. A diffluent wind pattern aloft
supports some cloudiness with possible rainshowers in the
central Caribbean Sea.

High pressure will begin to build north of the Caribbean Sea
today as the low pressure located over the western Atlantic
Ocean departs. This will bring the return of the fresh to strong
trade winds to the south central Caribbean Sea, near the coast
of Colombia, by tonight. Moderate to fresh trade winds, and
persistent northeast to east swell, will continue to impact the
waters that are to the east of the Lesser Antilles for the next
several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N62W, to the SE Bahamas and close
to SE Cuba and the Windward Passage. One surface trough is about
150 nm to the east of the cold front. A second surface trough is
about 240 nm to the west and northwest of the cold front.
Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from 20N
northward from 50W westward, in general, and specifically at
least within 60 nm on either side of each boundary. Fresh to
strong winds, and faster winds, are within 500 nm to the east of
first surface trough, from 30N northward.

The sea heights range from 9 feet to 12 feet from 50W eastward.
A surface ridge extends from a 1033 mb high pressure center that
is near 32N30W, to 30N35W 29N44W 26N49W 21N57W 20N61W. The sea
heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet within 180 nm on either side
of the ridge from 45W eastward. The sea heights range from 5
feet to 7 feet, elsewhere, between 50W and the western Atlantic
Ocean cold front and surface trough. Fresh to strong NE winds
are within 2000 nm to the west of Africa from 05N northward.
Moderate or slower wind speeds cover the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean.

The current cold front extends from 31N64W to 26N68W and to the
eastern tip of Cuba. Strong high pressure will continue to build
across the western Atlantic Ocean, in the wake of the front that
will continue to move eastward. Then, the pressure gradient is
forecast to strengthen across the western Atlantic during the
upcoming weekend leading to fresh to strong easterly winds in
most of the forecast waters. Seas will build to 10 or 11 feet E
of the Bahamas by Sat night with the increasing easterly flow.

$$
MT/JA
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