[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Mar 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coastal
plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and extends to 01N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 01N20W to 01N30W to 02N40W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is along the coast of Liberia from 05N-
06N E of 11W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-05N between
11W-17W. Similar convection is noted near 01N32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 mb high pressure centered over the north-central Gulf
dominates the Gulf region producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic
flow. Seas are 3-5 ft over the SW and SE parts of the Gulf, including
the Yucatan Channel. Seas of 1-3 ft are elsewhere. An area of low
level clouds, with possible areas of light rain remain over the
SW Gulf while cold air stratocumulus clouds are noted across much
of the basin, more concentrated over the SE Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the north-central
Gulf will control the weather pattern over the region through the
remainder of the week, resulting in gentle to moderate northeast
to east winds across the forecast waters. The pressure gradient is
forecast to strengthen over the Gulf during the upcoming weekend
as the high pressure shifts eastward into the western Atlantic.
This will bring fresh to occasionally strong east winds over the
southeastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, and fresh
southerly return flow over the NW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent satellite derived wind data indicate gentle to moderate N
winds across the Caribbean N of 15N and W of 80W. These N winds
spread south and increase to moderate to locally fresh S of 15N
and W of 81W to the coast of Nicaragua. These northerly winds are
associated with a ridge extending across the Gulf of Mexico into
the NW Caribbean and northern Central America. The N winds are
advecting stratocumulus clouds from the SE Gulf of Mexico into
western Cuba, and are also transporting patches of low level
moisture across the Gulf of Honduras into Honduras. Moderate to
fresh trades are noted over the south-central Caribbean, with
fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf
of Venezuela. Seas are 3-5 ft across much of the basin, except
6-8 ft near the coast of Colombia. A diffluent pattern aloft
supports some cloudiness with possible showers over the central
Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure will begin to build north of the
Caribbean Sea today as the low pressure located over the western
Atlantic departs. This will bring the return of the fresh to
strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, near the coast of
Colombia, by tonight. Moderate to fresh trades along with persistent
NE to E swell will continue to impact the waters east of the
Lesser Antilles for the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

W of 65W, a cold front extends from a 1008 mb low located NE of
Bermuda to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba. A surface trough is
analyzed W of the front and extends from 30N68W to 28N79W. A well
defined swirl of low clouds is along the trough axis near 28N72W.
An ASCAT pass indicates the cyclonic circulation associated with
this swirl of low clouds that is producing moderate to fresh
winds. S of 27N and W of 65W, mainly light and variable winds
prevail. Seas are 6-9 ft N of 27N based on altimeter data and buoy
observations, and 4-6 ft E of the Bahamas. Patches of low level
clouds are noted between the Bahamas and eastern Cuba.

For the forecast west of 65W, strong high pressure will build across
the western Atlantic in the wake of the aforementioned cold front
that will continue to move eastward. Then, the pressure gradient
is forecast to strengthen across the western Atlantic during the
upcoming weekend leading to fresh to strong easterly winds over
most of the forecast waters. Seas will build to 10 or 11 ft E of
the Bahamas by Sat night with the increasing easterly flow.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence
of a 1031 mb high pressure located near 31N31W. The pressure
gradient between this system and lower pressures over W Africa
supports fresh to strong northerly winds near the coast of Morocco
and between the Canary Islands. These winds are generating rough
seas of 10-12 ft. Fresh to locally strong trades are noted per
scatterometer data N of the ITCZ to about 22N and E of 50W,
including the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas are 8-12 ft within these
persisting winds.

For the forecast east of 65W, fresh to strong trades and 8-12 ft
seas will continue through at least Fri over the tropical
Atlantic east of 55W, as well as over the far eastern Atlantic
from the Cabo Verde Islands northward to beyond 31N. High
pressure will strengthen near the Azores on Thu. As a result,
strong to gale force N winds and seas building to 12-17 ft are
likely near the coast Morocco Fri and Fri night.

$$
GR
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