[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242314
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jul 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde
Islands near 30W from 20N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20
kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 11N between
26W and 35W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 62W from 19N
southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted
near this wave but no significant convection is noted at this
time.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 87W from 21N southward
across Honduras and Nicaragua, and moving west near 10 kt.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring from 16N to 22N
between 79W and 87W.

Another tropical wave is near 95W from the southern Bay of
Campeche at 20N southward across Mexico into the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms exist at
the western Bay of Campeche.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at the Mauritania coast
near 19N16W to a 1011 mb low near 13N33W to 11N46W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N42W to north of Suriname near 07N56W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 19N
and E of 29W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 12N
between 38W and 48W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms
over the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Refer to the Tropical
Waves section for additional weather in the Gulf. Surface ridging
extends south-southwestward from north of New Orleans to near Vera
Cruz, Mexico. This feature is providing light to gentle winds and
1 to 3 ft seas over the north-central and central Gulf. Gentle to
moderate ESE to SSE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the
remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the weak high pressure dominates the Gulf of
Mexico, allowing gentle to moderate winds and gentle seas to
prevail. Similar conditions are expected through the forecast
period. The exception will remain near and to the west of the
Yucatan Peninsula, where fresh NE to E winds will pulse each night
into the early morning hours over the next few days.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are triggering isolated thunderstorms near
Jamaica. A surface trough near east of the Windward Passage is
producing similar conditions near Hispaniola. Otherwise, an
easterly trade- wind pattern persists across the entire basin.
Moderate to locally fresh trades with 4 to 7 ft seas exist for the
central basin, and waters south of Cuba. Gentle to moderate
trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient in the central Caribbean
will support fresh to locally strong trades on Tue and moderate to
fresh winds during the rest of the forecast period. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh winds and gentle to moderate seas are expected
in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate
seas are expected just E of the Leeward Islands through Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
convection in the Atlantic Basin. The combined Bermuda and Azores
Highs are supporting light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
north of 26N between 38W and the Georgia/northern Florida coast.
Scattered thunderstorms are also noted off the NE Florida coast.
To the south, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and seas at 5 to
8 ft are found from 12N to 26N between 30W and the Bahamas/Lesser
Antilles. Gentle to moderate NNE to NE trades and seas of 4 to 5
ft are evident near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands north of 22N
between the northwest African coast of 33W/38W. Gentle to
moderate monsoonal and southerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail
for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the expansive subtropical ridge will
sustain fresh to strong easterly winds north of Hispaniola and the
approaches to the Windward and Mona Passages during the night
hours. A surface trough, currently located N of eastern
Hispaniola, will continue to move westward across the region
today, reaching the central Bahamas on Mon, and approaching South
Florida on Tue. Some increase in winds and seas are expected in
the wake of the trough.

$$
AReinhart
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