[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jul 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde
Islands near 28W from 21N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20
kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to 12N between
26W and 35W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Less Antilles near
56W from 19N southward into Suriname, and moving west near 20 kt.
Scattered showers are present east of Windward Islands from 13N to
16N between 53W and 59W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are found over central Guyana. This feature will
bring a period of showers and possible thunderstorms to the Lesser
Antilles tonight and Mon.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W from 20N southward
across Honduras and Nicaragua into Costa Rica, and moving west
near 10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near
the Island of Youth and north of the Gulf of Honduras, including
the Yucatan coast.

Another tropical wave is near 93W from the Bay of Campeche at 19N
southward across Mexico into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms exist at the western Bay of
Campeche.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at the Mauritania coast near
Nouakchott across 11N30W to 11N44W. Scattered showers are
occurring north of the trough near the Cabo Verde Islands.
Numerous heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near
the coast of southern Mauritania, Senegal and Guinea Bissau. A
short ITCZ runs from 08N40W to northeast of French Guiana at
06N50W. Scattered moderate convection is evident up to 140 nm
south of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms
over the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Refer to the Tropical
Waves section for additional weather in the Gulf. Surface ridging
extends south-southwestward from north of New Orleans to near Vera
Cruz, Mexico. This feature is providing light to gentle winds and
1 to 3 ft seas over the north-central and central Gulf. Gentle to
moderate ESE to SSE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the
remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the weak surface ridge will continue to dominate
the Gulf of Mexico, supporting primarily gentle to moderate winds
and gentle seas. This weather pattern is forecast to persist
through the forecast period. The exception will be near and to the
west of the Yucatan Peninsula, where fresh NE to E winds will
pulse each night into the early morning hours through the middle
of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are triggering isolated thunderstorms near
Jamaica. A surface trough near the Mona Passage is producing
similar conditions near Hispaniola. Otherwise, an easterly trade-
wind pattern persists across the entire basin. Moderate to locally
fresh trades with 4 to 7 ft seas exist for the central basin, and
waters south of Cuba. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 3 to 5
ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the strong subtropical high north of the
Caribbean Sea and lower pressures over South America are keeping a
tight pressure gradient. This will support fresh to locally
strong trades in the central Caribbean on Tue and moderate to
fresh winds during the rest of the forecast period. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh winds and gentle to moderate seas are expected
in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate
seas are forecast just east of the Leeward Islands through Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
convection in the Atlantic Basin. The combined Bermuda and Azores
Highs are supporting light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
north of 26N between 38W and the Georgia/northern Florida coast.
To the south, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and seas at 5 to
8 ft are found from 12N to 26N between 33W and the Bahamas/Lesser
Antilles. Gentle to moderate NNE to NE trades and seas of 4 to 5
ft are evident near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands north of 22N
between the northwest African coast of 33W/38W. Gentle to
moderate monsoonal and southerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail
for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge related to the
Bermuda/Azores Highs will remain the dominant feature across the
Atlantic forecast waters through the forecast period, supporting
fresh to strong easterly winds north of Hispaniola and the
approaches to the Windward Passage during the night hours. A
surface trough, currently located near the Mona Passage, will
continue to move westward across the region today, likely reaching
the central Bahamas on Mon, and approaching South Florida on Tue.
Some increase in winds and seas are expected in the wake of the
trough.

$$

Chan
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