[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212106
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jul 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic near the Canary Islands: Both ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C
data from earlier today indicated near-gale to gale force NNE
winds between the Canary Islands. The latest surface observations
on the coasts of the islands also depict strong to near-gale force
NNE winds with higher gusts. Seas are rough within these high
winds. These conditions are expected to persist through tomorrow.
For more information, please see the High Seas Forecast issued by
Meteo-France at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W, from 20N
southward, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Please see the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for a description of the convection near this
wave.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W, moving westward
at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends from 18N to
21N between 64W and 72W, from near the Virgin Islands to across
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean at the coast of
Senegal near 15N17W and extends to 1009 mb low pressure near
11N33W, then to 07N42W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted within 420 nm south-southeast of the monsoon
trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging dominates the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough in
the E Gulf extends from 27N83W to 24N90W, with scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms noted near the axis of the trough. Light
to gentle return flow prevails across the basin, except gentle to
moderate west of 93W, with 1 to 3 ft seas, except 3 to 4 ft west
of 93W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the western
periphery of the Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over northern
Mexico will support moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds over
the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Mainly
fresh NE to E winds will pulse each night into the early morning
hours near and to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula due to a thermal
trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High and lower
pressure over South America continues to induce fresh to locally
strong trades across the central Caribbean Sea and moderate to
fresh across the eastern Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate trades
are elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in the central Caribbean Sea,
locally to 8 ft offshore Colombia, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere,
except 2 to 4 ft in the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers associated
with the East Pacific Monsoon trough are noted in the
southwestern Caribbean and inland over Costa Rica and Panama.

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High located north of the
area combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to
support fresh to strong winds and moderate seas in the south-
central Caribbean into the weekend. Moderate to fresh trade winds
and moderate seas are forecast across the waters near the Lesser
Antilles into tonight, and then again during the upcoming weekend.
Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras each
night through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on near-
gale to gale force winds impacting the waters near the Canary
Islands.

Outside of the Special Feature, a ridge axis, associated with the
Bermuda-Azores high centered north of the area, extends from
31N46W to the Space Coast of Florida. Light to gentle winds are
near the ridge axis, with mainly moderate to fresh trades
elsewhere across the tropical Atlantic waters. Seas of 4 to 7 ft
dominate the discussion waters, except 3 to 5 ft north of 25N and
west of 65W.

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High will continue to
dominate the Atlantic forecast waters through the start of next
week. The pressure gradient between this system and tropical waves
moving across the Caribbean Sea will continue to support pulsing
fresh to locally strong easterly winds just off of Hispaniola and
eastern Cuba, including the approaches to the Windward Passage,
nightly through the weekend.

$$
Lewitsky
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