[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jul 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

E Atlantic near the Canary Islands: Both ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C data
from this morning indicates near-gale to gale force NNE winds
between the Canary Islands. The latest surface observations on
the coasts of the islands also depict strong to near-gale force
NNE winds with higher gusts. Seas are rough within these high
winds. These conditions are expected to persist through tomorrow.
For more information, please see the High Seas Forecast issued by
Meteo-France at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W, from 20N
southward, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Please see the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for a description of the convection near this
wave.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W, moving W at
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends from 16N to
20N between 64W and 69W, mostly impacting eastern Puerto Rico.

The previously analyzed W Caribbean tropical wave has moved
inland over Central America and into the East Pacific. For further
information on this tropical wave, please see the East Pacific
Tropical Weather Discussion.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean at the coast of
Senegal near 15N17W and extends to 1012 mb low pressure near
11N32W, then to 07N40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N
to 09N between 30W and 40W and from 07N to 11N east of 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging dominates the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough in
the E Gulf extends from 27N84W to 25N89W, with scattered showers
noted near the eastern terminus of the trough. A weak surface
trough is noted in the Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle return
flow prevails across the basin with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends westward across
Florida into the Gulf region. The pressure gradient between the
western periphery of the ridge and lower pressures over northern
Mexico will support moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds over
the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds over
the eastern half of the basin. Mainly fresh NE to E winds will
pulse each night into the early morning hours near and to the NW
of the Yucatan peninsula due to a thermal trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High and lower
pressure over South America continues to induce moderate trades
across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea, with seas of 4-7 ft.
Trades are locally strong near the southern coast of Hispaniola
and near the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia. Light to gentle
trades are present in the western Caribbean with 2-4 ft seas. Scattered
showers associated with the East Pacific Monsoon trough are noted
in the southwestern Caribbean and inland over Costa Rica and
Panama.

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High located N of the area
combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to
support fresh to strong winds and moderate seas in the south-
central Caribbean into the weekend. Moderate to fresh trade winds
and moderate seas are forecast across the waters near the Lesser
Antilles into tonight. Similar wind speeds are expected in the
Gulf of Honduras each night through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on near-
gale to gale force winds impacting the waters near the Canary
Islands.

Outside of the Special Feature, gentle to moderate NE to E winds
continue across the tropical Atlantic, except locally fresh S of
18N and W of 50W. Seas of 4-7 ft persist across the discussion
waters. This pattern is driven by the Bermuda-Azores high
centered north of the area.

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High will continue to
dominate the Atlantic forecast waters through the start of next
week. The pressure gradient between this system and tropical waves
moving across the Caribbean Sea will continue to support pulsing
fresh to locally strong easterly winds just off of Hispaniola and
eastern Cuba, including the approaches to the Windward Passage,
nightly through the weekend.

$$
Colon-Burgos/Mahoney
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