[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210549
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jul 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W, from 20N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Any nearby
precipitation is related to the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/59W, from 20N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Any nearby
precipitation is related to the ITCZ.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W, from 20N southward,
moving westward about 10 knots. Precipitation: no significant
deep convective precipitation is associated just with this
tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Senegal and Mauritania, to 13N28W and 08N45W. The ITCZ continues
from 08N45W to 10N58W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is within 360 nm to the south of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ from 43W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 120 nm to the north of the monsoon trough
between 32W and 36W, and elsewhere from 10N and the ITCZ
southward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from
23N northward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is
near 25N87W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 24N
northward from 92W eastward.

A surface ridge extends from the east central sections of the
Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of the area near 20N96W at the
coast of Mexico.

Moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds are in the western half of the
Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to light anticyclonic winds are in the rest
of the basin. The wave heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet in the
Florida Straits and in the western half of the area. The wave
heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet elsewhere.

The Atlantic Ocean ridge extends westward across Florida into
the Gulf region. The pressure gradient between the western
periphery of the ridge and lower pressures in northern Mexico
will support moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds in the
western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds in the
eastern half of the basin. Mainly fresh NE to E winds will pulse
each night into the early morning hours near and to the NW of
the Yucatan peninsula due to a thermal trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea
from 70W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is in the areas of the upper level cyclonic wind flow.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 20N southward between 44W and
60W in the Atlantic Ocean. A tropical wave is along 58W/59W. Broad
upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the Atlantic Ocean just to the
north of the eastern one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is from 12N to 20N between 60W and 70W.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, between 74W in Colombia,
and beyond Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 240 nm to the south of the monsoon trough.

The surface pressure gradient, that is between the central
Atlantic Ocean subtropical ridge and the comparatively lower
surface pressures that are in the northern sections of South
America, is resulting in fresh to strong easterly trade winds,
and wave heights that range from 7 feet to 9 feet, in the south
central Caribbean Sea. An earlier scatterometer pass was showing
the strongest winds to be off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds, and wave heights that range from 4 feet to 7
feet, are in the rest of the central and eastern sections of the
Caribbean Sea and in the lee of Cuba. Light to gentle winds, and
wave heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are elsewhere.

The Bermuda-Azores High, located N of the area and the
Colombia/Panama low pressure center, will continue to support
fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through
the end of the week. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate
seas are forecast across the waters near the Lesser
Antilles through Thu night. Similar wind speeds are expected in
the Gulf of Honduras each night through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 31N49W to 26N66W, to the
waters that are between Andros Island in the Bahamas and SE
Florida, to 26N87W in the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level cyclonic
wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 40W
westward. Precipitation: rainshowers are in the areas of the
upper level cyclonic wind flow.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward. A
surface ridge is along 31N53W 29N69W, through central Florida,
into the east central Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong NE winds
are from 22N northward from 22W eastward. Moderate to fresh
winds are within 570 nm on either side of the line  27N25W
21N39W 17N56W. The wind speeds elsewhere are moderate or slower.
The wave heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet from 20N northward
from 20W eastward, and from 20N southward from 40W eastward. The
wave heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet elsewhere.

The Bermuda-Azores High will continue to dominate the Atlantic
Ocean forecast waters into the start of next week. The pressure
gradient between this system and tropical waves moving
across the Caribbean Sea will continue to support pulsing fresh
to locally strong easterly winds just off Hispaniola and eastern
Cuba, including in the approaches to the Windward Passage,
nightly,
into the weekend.

$$
mt/sk
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