[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202311
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jul 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An E Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W, south of 20N
and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. The disturbance is embedded in a
large area of dry and dusty Saharan air that is suppressing the
development of showers and thunderstorms at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 57W, south
of 20N and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No deep convection is
associated with this feature.

A W Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 84W, south of 20N
and moving W at 10 kt. The interaction between the wave and the
E Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms mainly S of 11N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W to 05N45W. The ITCZ extends from 05N45W
to 09N56W and then resumes from 09N58W to 10N61W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is observed from 06N to 12N and E
of 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered moderate convection prevails across the NE corner of
the basin N of 27N and E of 90W. The remainder of the basin is
under the influence of a broad area of high pressure centered over
the central Atlantic, allowing for tranquil weather conditions.
Moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds are found in the Bay of
Campeche and western Gulf, primarily W of 90W, while gentle to
light anticyclonic winds are noted in the rest of the basin.
Seas of 3-4 ft are noted in the Florida Straits, Bay of Campeche
and western Gulf, while seas of 1-3 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, little change in the marine conditions are
expected into the weekend as a ridge continues to dominate the
Gulf region. The pressure gradient between the western periphery
of the ridge and lower pressures over northern Mexico will
support moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds over the western
half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds over the eastern
half of the basin. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse
each night into the early morning hours near and to the NW of the
Yucatan peninsula due to a thermal trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for information on the
convection in the SW Caribbean.

Diurnal convection is noted over the Greater Antilles affecting
the adjacent waters. There is also an area of scattered showers
moving across the Lesser Antilles. The rest of the Caribbean
enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions due to a dry airmass
moving through the region. The pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic and lower pressures
over northern South America result in fresh to strong easterly
trades in the south-central Caribbean. This was confirmed by a
recent scatterometer satellite pass, showing the strongest winds
occurring off NW Colombia. Seas in these waters are 7-9 ft.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds are found in the rest of the
central, eastern Caribbean and in the lee of Cuba, along with
seas of 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle and seas of 2-4 ft
prevail.

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High located N of the area
combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to
support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean to
the end of the week. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate
seas are forecast across the waters near the Lesser Antilles
through Thu night, and then again during the upcoming weekend.
Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras each
night through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for information on the
waves moving across the basin.

An extensive ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic, maintaining
fairly tranquil weather conditions outside of the deep tropics.
This weather pattern is accentuated by a large area of dry and
dusty Saharan air that is moving across the Atlantic and
suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms. Fresh
to strong easterly winds are noted NE of the Leeward Islands,
especially from 14N to 23N and between 51W and 60W, along with
seas of 4-7 ft. Fresh to occasionally strong SW winds are noted
south of the monsoon trough, mainly between 20W and 30W. Seas in
these waters are 6-9 ft. Farther north, fresh to near gale-force
N-NE winds are observed N of 22N and E of 22W, with the strongest
winds occurring in the water passages in the Canary Islands and
near the coast of Morocco and Western Sahara. Seas are 6-8 ft in
the waters described. In the rest of the basin, occasionally
moderate to fresh winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores high will continue to
dominate the Atlantic forecast waters through the weekend. The
pressure gradient between this system and tropical waves moving
across the Caribbean will continue to support pulsing fresh to
locally strong easterly winds just off of Hispaniola and eastern
Cuba, including the approaches to the Windward Passage, nightly
into Sun.

$$
ERA
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