[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180609
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jul 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 20N southward,
and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are found from 06N
to 10N between 38W and 41W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 66W from south of
Puerto Rico at 17N southward into Venezuela, and moving W near 15
kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring
north of the ABC Islands and over central Venezuela.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 78W from western Jamaica
southward across Panama into the East Pacific Ocean, and moving W
near 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen
near the Panama and Colombia coast, and near the Cayman Islands.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 86W from the Gulf of
Honduras southward across Honduras and Nicaragua into the East
Pacific Ocean, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are present at the western Gulf of
Honduras, and near the Nicaragua coast.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast of
Mauritania near Nouakchott across 13N22W to 10N30W. Scattered to
numerous heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are flaring up
south of the trough from 05N to 11N between Guinea-Sierra Leone
coast and 27W. An ITCZ continues from 10N30W to 07N38W, then from
06N41W to southeast of the French Guiana-Brazil border at 03N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 120 nm south, and 80
nm north of both ITCZ segments.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends southwestward from the Florida Panhandle
to near Tampico, Mexico. This feature is dominating most of the
Gulf with gentle to moderate southerly winds and 1 to 2 ft seas.
The exception is the Bay of Campeche where gentle to moderate NE
to ENE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft exist.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
region this week. Under this weather pattern, mainly gentle to
moderate winds will prevail, except near and to the NW of the
Yucatan peninsula where moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse
each night into the early morning hours due to local effects.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the
Caribbean Sea. Pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and
lower pressure over northern Colombia is sustaining a trade-wind
pattern over the entire Caribbean Basin. Enhanced by the presence
of tropical waves, Fresh to strong ENE winds and seas of 7 to 9
ft are evident across the central basin. Gentle to moderate E to
ESE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are found at the northwestern basin.
Moderate to locally fresh ENE to E winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft are
noted off the Nicaragua and Costa Rica coast. Mostly fresh E
winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail for the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will prolong fresh to
strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through mid-week.
Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected
across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles into Wed night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level divergent flow together with southerly low-level
moisture inflow from the NW Caribbean are triggering isolated
thunderstorms from central Cuba northward across northwest Bahamas
to off the Florida east coast. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic
Basin.

The Bermuda and Azores Highs are supporting light to gentle winds
and seas at 3 to 4 ft north of 25N between 25W and the
Georgia/northern Florida coast. Farther east, NNE Moderate to
fresh with locally strong trades and 8 to 11 ft seas are evident
north of 16N between the African coast and 25W. To the south,
gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE trades and seas of 4 to 7
ft are seen from 09N to 25N between 25W and the southwest
Bahamas/Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate SW to NW winds and
seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge related to the highs will
continue to dominate the forecast region over the next several
days. The pressure gradient between the southern periphery of the
ridge and tropical waves moving across the Caribbean Sea will
support fresh to locally strong easterly winds just off of
Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including the approaches to the
Windward Passage into Tue. As the high moves east a bit into Tue,
some fresh SW winds will develop offshore Florida.

$$

Chan
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