[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172351
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jul 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 20N with axis near 37W,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to
13N between 33W and 46W.

A tropical wave is S of 17N with axis near 65W, moving W at 15-20
kt. Scattered moderate convection is S of 16N between 62W and 72W.

A tropical wave S of 19N with axis near 77W, moving W at 20 kt.
Isolated showers are S of 19N between 73W and 83W.

A tropical wave is S of 18N with axis near 85W, moving W at 15 kt.
Isolated showers associated with this wave are across the NW
Caribbean with scattered moderate convection being observed over
Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
16N16W to 11N23W to 08N42W. The ITCZ continues from 08N42W to
08N51W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N-11N between 11W-25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails over the basin, anchored by a 1016 mb
high pressure near 28N92W. The basin is experiencing light to
gentle varaible wind and 1 to 2 ft seas, except along the Yucatan
peninsula where moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds are
observed. Otherwise, deep layer moisture inflow from the Caribbean
into the basin and a surface trough support isolated showers over
the eastern half of the gulf.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
region this week. Under this weather pattern, mainly gentle to
moderate winds will prevail, except near and to the NW of the
Yucatan peninsula where moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse
each night into the early morning hours due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the
Caribbean Sea. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between the Azores
high extending a ridge to the northern Caribbean and the passage
of the tropical waves continue to support moderate to fresh trade
winds in the east and southwest Caribbean, and strong winds in the
central basin where seas range between 8 to 9 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will lead
to fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean into the
middle of the week. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate
seas are expected across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles
through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level divergent flow and low-level moisture inflow from the
NW Caribbean by southerly flow continue to support scattered
showers over the SW N Atalantic waters. The dominant feature
across the region continue to be surface ridging extending from
the Bermuda/Azores high. This is supporting moderate to fresh
trade winds S of 26N in the central and western subtropical
waters, except just N of Hispaniola where fresh to strong winds
and seas to 8 ft prevail. Over the far eastern Atlantic a tighter
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over NW
Africa support fresh to near gale force NE winds N of 17N and E
of 25W with seas of 8 to 11 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to
dominate the forecast region over the next several days. The
pressure gradient between the southern periphery of the ridge and
tropical waves moving across the Caribbean Sea will support fresh
to locally strong easterly winds just off of Hispaniola and eastern
Cuba, including the approaches to the Windward Passage, through
Mon night.

$$
Ramos
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