[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091746
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jul 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 24W
from the Cabo Verde Islands southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave axis.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 55W from
19N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. A broad area of
scattered moderate convection extends from 06N to 12N between
55W and 62W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W, from 20N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. The 1200 UTC Upper Air Sounding from
Santo Domingo indicated that the tropical wave passed overnight,
and that mid-level moisture decreased in the lee of the tropical
wave. No convection is noted with the tropical wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N15W
to 09N27W. The ITCZ continues from 09N27W to 08N40W to the coast
of French Guiana near 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm of both the Monsoon Trough and ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, recent satellite images and surface observations
indicate a weak surface trough has formed in the north-central
Gulf, extending from 29N87W to 24N93W. A few showers and tstorms
are possible along this boundary today. Weak ridging extending
from the subtropical Atlantic High continues to maintain light
to gentle return flow across the Gulf waters. Seas are 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging extending across the gulf
will maintain gentle to moderate return flow E of 90W through
the forecast period. Gentle to moderate winds W of 90W will
increase to moderate to fresh speeds early on Mon and continue
through Wed night as a broad area of low pressure develops over
Texas and extends along eastern Mexico, increasing the pressure
gradient in the region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The earlier Gale Warning for the Gulf of Venezuela has expired,
with trade winds having diminished to fresh speeds. Seas are
currently 6-8 ft in the Gulf of Venezuela. In the central and
southwest Caribbean, fresh to locally strong trades were
detected by the latest scatterometer pass. Seas in this region
are 6-9 ft, with highest seas in the strongest winds. Scattered
moderate convection is noted in the SW Caribbean, from the coast
of Panama north to 11N between 77W and 82W. In the eastern
Caribbean, trades are moderate and seas are 4-6 ft. In the NW
Caribbean, trades are moderate and seas are 3-5 ft. This pattern
across the Caribbean is the result of a strong subtropical high
pressure centered north of the area creating a tight pressure
gradient with lower pressure over the SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the strong subtropical high extending a ridge
to the northern Caribbean will maintain moderate to fresh trade
winds across the E basin and fresh to strong winds in the
central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Wed night as
two tropical waves move through the region. Gentle to moderate
winds in the NW Caribbean will increase to moderate to fresh on
Tue, and reach strong speeds in the Gulf of Honduras Wed evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical Azores High currently dominates the discussion
waters. Scatterometer data from this morning shows gentle return
flow over the W Atlantic north of 20N and west of 60W.
Elsewhere, trades are mainly moderate, except fresh within an
area from 09N to 20N between 40W and 48W. Seas are 4-7 ft across
the basin. An area of 8-10 ft seas in NE to E swell is from 12N
to 23N between 35W and 45W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Azores high will continue to
extend a ridge SW across the region, which will maintain
moderate to fresh E to SE winds mainly S of 25N through the
forecast period. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds will
develop tonight N of 29N and continue through Tue morning as a
frontal boundary moves across the waters N of the region. This
will slightly weaken the ridge Sun night through Mon night.

$$
Mahoney
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