[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090955
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jul 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Venezuela through
this morning. Winds and seas will improve by Sat late morning,
and winds are expected to stay below gale force through the rest
of the weekend. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
product issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 22W from
17N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Convection is limited
near the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 50W from
19N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted across the southern portion of the wave where
it meets the ITCZ.

Another tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean and extends
its axis from western Puerto Rico to central Venezuela. Scattered
showers are noted near the southern end of the wave over
Venezuela.

A tropical wave is reaching the Yucatan peninsula with axis along
88W from 22N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are near the wave axis over Honduras
and El Salvador.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 13N17W
to 09N29W. The ITCZ continues from 09N29W to 08N46W, then W of a
tropical wave near 07N52W to 07N57W. A cluster of moderate to
isolated strong convection is along the W coast Africa affecting
from Senegal to Guinea Bissau. Scattered moderate convection can
also be found from 03N to 10N between 31W and 58W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge dominates the basin supporting gentle
winds, with the exception of moderate to fresh NE to E winds just
W of the Yucatan peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche.
Moderate southerly winds are noted near the coast of Texas. Seas
are generally in 1 to 3 ft range.

For the forecast, the ridge will shift south to along 28N through
tonight, then shift south to the central Gulf Sun through next
week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail
through this time. NE to E winds will pulse to moderate along the
NW Yucatan peninsula through Mon. Fresh SE winds will develop in
the eastern Bay of Campeche Tue night and diminish Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently
in effect for the Gulf of Venezuela.

Please read the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
two waves moving across the Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure over the
Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting
fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean with
7-10 ft seas. Easterly winds are moderate to fresh in the eastern
Caribbean with 4-7 ft seas. In the northwest Caribbean, winds are
moderate from the E-SE with 3-5 ft seas.

An upper-level low spinning over eastern Cuba. This low will
continue to move westward over Cuba Sat and Sun, supporting the
developing of showers and thunderstorms convection over parts of
Cuba mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are observed over the SW Caribbean. A diffluent
pattern aloft is helping to induce this activity.

For the forecast, gale force winds will prevail over the Gulf of
Venezuela through the early morning hours. Fresh winds prevail
over the central Caribbean today as high pressure builds north of
the area. Winds and seas will diminish significantly across the
basin on Sun, then increase from Mon afternoon through Wed as a
tropical wave currently near 67W moves across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for more details on the
two waves moving across the Atlantic.

The Bermuda-Azores high dominates the weather pattern across the
Atlantic forecast waters. Based on scatterometer data, a belt of
moderate to fresh trades is noted around the southern periphery of
this high, affecting mainly the waters S of 25N. Seas are 6-8 ft
within these winds based on altimeter data. The associated ridge
extends toward the Bahamas and Florida.

For the forecast west of 55W, winds will pulse to strong off the
northern coast of Hispaniola at night through tonight. The ridge
will shift S over the weekend as a cold front approaches from the
NW. The front will move slowly southeastward and stall off the
southeastern U.S. coast. Fresh SW winds ahead of the front over
the far NW forecast waters will shift northeast of the area Sun
night into Mon as front dissipates. High pressure will then build
westward near 29N by early week.

$$
ERA
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