[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031020
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jul 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Colin is no longer identifiable in satellite imagery, radar, or
surface observations and is assumed to have dissipated over
eastern North Carolina near 35N77W. The last advisory has been
issued on Colin this morning. South to southwest winds of 20 to
25 kt are converging within 180 nm offshore of the coasts of North
Carolina and South Carolina and producing a solid line of
moderate to strong convection parallel to the coast from 31.5N to
34.5N. Seas are 7 to 10 ft across this area. What remnants that
remain of Colin are expected to merge with a frontal system over
the western Atlantic in about 24 hours.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory for Colin at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends along 43W, from 02N to 18N and
is moving W at 15-20 kt. This wave is embedded in a dry and stable
environment and no significant convection is noted with it at this
time.

A strong Caribbean tropical wave extends from 21N70W to 06N74W
and is moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is observed from 17N to 23N between 65W and 73W.
Scatterometer data from 0100 to 0200 UTC tonight showed strong to
gale force winds occurring south of the Dominican Republic in
strong convection, which has since diminishing considerably.
However strong winds to near 30 kt and seas to 11 ft are assumed
to continue to the south of Hispaniola early this morning. Localized
winds to gale force are still possible in the vicinity of
thunderstorms. Fresh to strong winds associated with this wave are
also occurring across the Atlantic waters from offshore of
eastern Cuba to north of Hispaniola.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from southern Senegal near 13N17W to
05.5N27W. The ITCZ continues from 05.5N27W to 05N40W. The ITCZ
then resumes west of a tropical wave from 06N46W to 06.5N57W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon trough
to 05N between 24W and the African coast. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is also noted from 08N to 10N between
47W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf along about
29N, with lower pressure over Mexico and a weak trough along the
NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Buoys are reporting moderate
to fresh SE winds in the western Gulf with 2-3 ft seas. Winds are
moderate to fresh in the southern Gulf with 3-4 ft seas.
Conditions are more favorable in the NE Gulf with gentle winds and
slight seas.

For the forecast, a surface ridge extends across the N Gulf along
29N and will dominate the Gulf waters through Tue night before
drifting northward to along 30N. Gentle to moderate winds and
slight seas will prevail through this time. Fresh NE to E winds
will pulse at night near the NW Yucatan peninsula through Tue
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for details on the active
wave in the eastern Caribbean.

Outside of the near gale force winds and rough seas due to the
tropical wave, easterly winds are strong in the eastern
Caribbean to the east of 67W, fresh in the central Caribbean and
gentle to moderate in the NW Caribbean. Strong winds are also
funneling through the Windward Passage. Seas are generally 6-8 ft
in the eastern and central Caribbean, with 9-11 ft in the
vicinity of the tropical wave. Seas are 4-6 ft in the NW
Caribbean.

For the forecast, the strong tropical wave along 72W will
continue moving quickly westward across the central Caribbean
today, accompanied by a broad surge of strong winds and high seas
across both the Atlantic and Caribbean waters. Seas across the
western Caribbean will continue to subside through today. High
pressure will build modestly across the W Atlantic Mon through
early Tue to maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the
central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Colin.

Convection in the western Atlantic associated with the remnants of
Colin extends southwestward to 29N80W. Winds in the far western
Atlantic are moderate from the South with 3-5 ft seas. Subtropical
high pressure dominates the pattern through the remainder of the
Atlantic. Gentle winds along 30N increase to moderate south of 29N
and moderate to fresh south of 25N. Winds are generally from the
SE in the western Atlantic, E in the central Atlantic and NE in
the eastern Atlantic. Seas are generally 4-6 ft north of 25N and
6-8 ft south of 25N, except 8 to 9 ft north of Hispaniola.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge centered across
the central Atlantic N of 30N will continue to dominate the
forecast waters through today. The strong tropical wave along 72W
will move quickly across the central Caribbean Sea today,
accompanied by a broad surge of fresh to strong winds and high
seas across the waters S of 25N. Active convection associated with
this wave will be capable of producing gale force wind gusts
across the waters north of Hispaniola and through the SE Bahamas
today through this evening. High pressure will then extend west
along 28N through mid week.

$$
Stripling
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net