[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030408
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jul 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Colin is centered near 34.4N 77.8W at 03/0300
UTC or 10 nm N of Wilmington North Carolina moving NE at 6 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Colin has become weak and
disorganized tonight, with a few showers lingering offshore.
Winds have decreased below tropical storm force. 12 ft seas reach
as far as 120 nm to the southeast of the center. Colin will
continue to weaken and will likely lose all tropical
characteristics this morning.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory for Colin at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends along 41W, from 02N to 18N and
is moving W at 10 kt. Associated convection is weak.

A strong Caribbean tropical wave extends from 21N68W to 05N70W and
is moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 14N to 21N between 64W and 71W. A recent scatterometer pass
found strong to near gale force winds south of Haiti, where seas
have built up to 11 ft. Localized winds are likely stronger in
the vicinity of thunderstorms. Winds are fresh to strong in the
eastern Caribbean due to this feature.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from southern Senegal near 13N17W to
05N28W. The ITCZ continues from 05N28W to 05N38W. The ITCZ
continues west of a tropical wave from 05N44W to 05N53W. No
significant convection is evident across the tropical Atlantic at
this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf, with lower
pressure over Mexico and a weak trough across the Yucatan
Peninsula. Buoys are reporting moderate to fresh SE winds in the
western Atlantic with 2-4 ft seas. Winds are moderate to fresh in
the southern Gulf with 3-5 ft seas. Conditions are more favorable
in the NE Gulf with gentle winds and slight seas.

For the forecast, a surface ridge extends across the Gulf along
28N and will dominate the Gulf waters through early next week.
Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail through this
time. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night near the NW Yucatan
peninsula through Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for details on the active
wave in the eastern Caribbean.

Outside of the near gale force winds and rough seas due to the
tropical wave, easterly winds are strong in the eastern
Caribbean, fresh in the central Caribbean and gentle to moderate
in the NW Caribbean. Strong winds are also noted south of
Hispaniola and funneling through the Windward Passage. Seas are
generally 6-8 ft in the eastern and central Caribbean, with 9-11
ft in the vicinity of the tropical wave. Seas are 4-6 ft in the NW
Caribbean.

For the forecast, a strong tropical wave located along 70W will
continue moving quickly westward across the eastern Caribbean Sea
tonight and across the central Caribbean Sun, accompanied by a
broad surge of strong winds and high seas across both the Atlantic
and Caribbean waters. Seas across the western Caribbean will
continue to subside through Sun. High pressure will build modestly
across the W Atlc Mon night through early Tue to maintain fresh
to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Tropical Storm Colin.

Convection in the western Atlantic has diminished as Colin
becomes weaker and more disorganized. Winds in the far western
Atlantic are moderate from the South with 3-5 ft seas. Subtropical
high pressure dominates the pattern through the remainder of the
Atlantic. Gentle winds along 30N increase to moderate south of 29N
and moderate to fresh south of 25N. Winds are generally from the
SE in the western Atlantic, E in the central Atlantic and NE in
the eastern Atlantic. Seas are generally 4-6 ft north of 25N and
6-8 ft south of 25N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge remains centered
across the central Atlantic N of 30N and will continue to
dominate the forecast waters through the weekend. A strong
tropical wave along 70W will move quickly across the eastern and
central Caribbean Sea over the weekend. This will bring a broad
surge of fresh to strong winds and high seas across the waters S
of 25N through Sun.

$$
Flynn
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