[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260406
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jan 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
03000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1016 mb low pressure area is
located near 25N41W as noted by recent satellite imagery. A
surface trough extends from 30N42W through the low to 20N40W per
recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Isolated showers are possible
near these features. Scattered moderate convection is to the
southeast from 19N to 28N between 31W and 37W, likely associated
with a mid-level low. The ASCAT data also indicated winds of
gale-force on the northern and eastern side of the low, and a
recent altimeter pass shows seas of 11 to 13 ft. A gale warning
has been issued and is in effect through 1200 UTC. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is located inland over central Africa. A
surface trough extends from 02N08E to 02N00W to 02S06W to 02S25W.
Another surface trough extends from 09N15W to 02N28W. A third
surface trough is noted by recent ASCAT scatterometer data from
06N36W to 02N41W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from the equator to 05N between 22W and 41W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 22W
and 28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating cold front is analyzed along the coast of SW
Louisiana to across the Houston area. A 1012 mb low pressure
center is noted in satellite imagery in the northeast Gulf near
28N87W. A dissipating stationary front extends from the low to
across the northern Florida Peninsula. A cold front extends from
the low through 25N85W to across the Yucatan Peninsula and over
southern Mexico south of the Bay of Campeche. A trailing surface
trough is about 60-180 nm lagging behind the cold front. Fresh to
strong winds are noted on the northwestern side of the low
offshore of the western Florida Panhandle to offshore of southern
Louisiana, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere west of the
trailing trough. Seas are building to 6 to 9 ft in the area of
fresh to strong winds, with 4 to 6 ft elsewhere west of the
trailing trough. Another 1012 mb low pressure center is noted in
the southeast Gulf near 25.5N84.5W. A developing warm front
extends from the low to across the southern Florida Peninsula.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted southeast of the low
in the southeast Gulf as well as ahead of and along the cold
front from that low to across the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to
fresh winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted north of the developing
warm front, with gentle to moderate winds and mainly 2 to 4 ft
seas across the remainder of the basin, higher in and near any
convection.

For the forecast, the complex low pressure over the eastern Gulf
will gradually weaken and drift east into late week, with a
trailing cold front leading to strong to near gale force winds in
the north-central and NE Gulf through Wed. The next cold front is
forecast to move into the NW Gulf Fri followed by strong to near
gale force winds for much of the basin. Gales are possible
offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico, Fri evening into Sat
morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Caribbean Sea is clear of any notable surface features. 1008
mb low pressure along the northern border of Venezuela and
Colombia combined with high pressure north of the basin is
supporting fresh to strong winds and resultant building 5 to 8 ft
seas in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and
seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the central and eastern
Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are also noted offshore of the
north- central coast of Honduras due to a locally tight pressure
gradient, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate winds
and seas of 2 to 4 ft are across the remainder of the basin. A few
isolated showers on the trade wind flow can't be ruled out over
portions of the eastern and central Caribbean.

For the forecast, strong winds will prevail offshore Colombia
into the weekend, with fresh winds in the Gulf of Honduras
diminishing Wed night. Otherwise, mainly moderate trades will
prevail. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean Fri night,
and bring fresh to strong winds and building seas through the
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a
central Atlantic Gale Warning.

A 1014 mb low pressure area is analyzed just north of the area and
west of Bermuda near 32N68W. A trailing trough extends south of
the low through 27N68W to across the central Bahamas. A stationary
front is ahead of the trough from near Bermuda through 27N66W to
just east of the Turks and Caicos to the north coast of Haiti.
Isolated to scattered showers are possible north of 22N and ahead
of the stationary front, as well as north of 25N and west of the
stationary front. Additional moisture is streaming northeastward
from the southeast Gulf of Mexico to across the Florida Peninsula
and the northern Bahamas. A weak 1019 mb high center is just
northeast of the Bahamas near 28N76W. Light and variable winds
along with 3 to 5 ft seas dominate the waters west of 68W or so,
with gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas north of 22N
between 55W and 68W.

Farther east, fresh to strong winds and 6 to 10 ft seas prevail
elsewhere north of a line from 11N17W to 11N25W to the gale-force
low near 25N41W to 25N50W. Gentle to moderate trades, locally
fresh south of 22N and west of 40W, and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail
across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast west of 65W, the front from south of Bermuda to
the Turks and Caicos islands will gradually dissipate through the
end of the week. Another cold front will move south into the area
Wed night, the stall Thu over the northern waters. Strong N to NE
winds and build seas will form in the wake of the front. Thu
night, low pressure is forecast to develop along the Florida
coast, with a cold front then sweeping east across the area
through the weekend. Strong to near gale force winds and rough
seas are likely behind this cold front.

$$
Lewitsky
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