[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252353
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jan 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 04N07W to 03N15W. The ITCZ extends
from 01S21W to 01N35W. A surface trough is analyzed from 00N39W to
04N35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01S-07N
between 18W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1010 mb low pressure center is in the north central Gulf of
Mexico near 28N88W. A stationary front extends east-northeastward
from the low pressure center to the Florida Big Bend. A cold
front extends southwestward from the low pressure center to 24N90W
to 20N94W to 18N94W. A sharp surface trough is along 26N between
84W-87W. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of 87.5W to
the coast of Florida, from 23.5N to 30N. Strong to locally near
gale-force wind speeds are likely occurring near the surface
trough and near the 1010 mb low pressure. Fresh N winds are
occurring elsewhere west of the cold front. Seas of 5 to 8 ft are
occurring over most of the central and western Gulf. Seas are 3 to
4 ft over the eastern Bay of Campeche and portions of the far SE
Gulf.

For the forecast, the low pressure will move to the NE Gulf
through tonight where it will weaken before tracking SE and moving
E of the area Wed night. The next cold front is forecast to move
into the NW Gulf Fri followed by strong to near gale force winds,
possibly reaching gale force over the Tampico and Veracruz
offshore waters Fri evening into Sat morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak surface trough is noted near western Haiti and the Windward
Passage with possible isolated showers. Otherwise, mid to upper-
level anticyclonic flow in inducing subsidence and dry air across
the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are likely
occurring over the NW Caribbean, west of 84W. Moderate to fresh
trades are also noted over the central Caribbean between 65W-80W.
Fresh to strong winds are in the south-central Caribbean, near the
coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Generally gentle
to moderate wind speeds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft in the
south-central to SW Caribbean and 3-5 ft elsewhere in the eastern
and central basin. Seas are 3-5 ft in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas
are 2-3 ft north of 18N between 73W-84W.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds over the Gulf
of Honduras, central and eastern Caribbean will diminish to gentle
to moderate speeds on Thu, except for the south-central basin
where strong winds will prevail. Fresh to strong winds over the
northern Colombia offshore waters will diminish Fri night as high
pressure north of the area is replaced by a strong cold front.
This front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean Sat morning.
Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas following the
front will affect the NW basin through the remainder of the
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 31N68W. An occluded front
extends E from the low to a triple point near 31N64W. A cold front
extends from 31N64W to the N coast of Haiti. A warm front extends
E from the triple point to 31N58W. A surface trough extends SW
from the low to 25N71W. A 1018 mb surface high pressure is N of
the Bahamas near 28N77W. Although no major areas of precipitation
are associated with the aforementioned frontal features, scattered
showers are off Florida, mainly north of 26N and west of 76W, due
to strong upper-level diffluence in the area. Wind speeds
associated with the aforementioned low, front and trough are
mainly moderate to fresh. Seas are 3 to 4 ft west of 73W, and 4 to
6 ft between 60W-73W.

Farther east, a 1012 mb low pressure is near 25N40W. A surface
trough partially wraps around the low, extending from 28N40W to
27N35W to 23N33W to 16N35W to 12N42W. An upper-level low is
centered near 22N35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 19N-28N between 31.5W-41.5W. Strong to near-gale force winds
are likely occurring in the northern semicircle of this low
pressure system, with fresh winds occurring over much of the
remainder of the eastern Atlantic north of 20N and east of 45W.
Seas of 8-12 ft are likely occurring north of 23N between 27W-46W
as a result of this low pressure system. Moderate winds and seas
of 4-7 ft prevail elsewhere across the area.

For the forecast west of 65W, the low currently near 31N68W will
move NE, and north of the area this evening. The trailing cold
front will gradually slide east into late week, while another cold
front moves southward down the east coast of the U.S. Wed into
Thu. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will follow the second front
with building seas affecting the offshore waters N of 28N Wed
night through Fri. A low pressure is forecast to develop over the
NE Florida offshore waters Fri morning along with a cold front
that will affect the Florida seaboard Fri night and the Bahamas
Sat and Sat night. Strong to near gale winds and rough seas will
affect the region during this period.

$$
Hagen
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