[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232209
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jan 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2240 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African
continent. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N13W through 05N20W to 03N45W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 07N between 14W and 20W, and from 05N to 07N
between 35W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge is building over the northwest Gulf currently, anchored by
a 1027 mb high pressure centered overr south-central Louisiana. A
surface trough is analyzed over the far western Gulf off the
Mexican coast. A scatterometer pass and an altimeter pass from
around 1630 UTC showed fresh to strong NW winds and 8 to 10 ft
seas off the coast of Veracruz west of the trough. Moderate to
fresh NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the
Gulf south of 25N, following a cold front that moved across the
area yesterday. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and 2 to 4 ft
seas are noted north of 25N. No shower or thunderstorm activity is
evident.

For the forecast, fresh winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft in the
southwest Gulf should decrease through this evening as high
pressure crosses north of the region. Low pressure is expected
emerge off the Texas coast Mon evening, then track across the
northern and eastern Gulf into Wed. Strong winds, higher seas, and
unsettled weather are likely with this low. Strong to near-gale-
force winds are possible behind the associated cold front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong NE winds are funnelling along the coast of
Colombia, between high pressure north of the basin and 1009 mb
inland over Colombia. Seas to 9 ft are active from off the central
coast of Colombia reaching toward coast of eastern Panama. Gentle
to moderate E trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere,
except light NE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas over the northwest
Caribbean. Dry conditions are suppressing any convection over the
basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure in
the central Atlantic and the Colombian low will support near gale
conditions to pulse nightly early this week. Generally moderate to
fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. A cold front may approach
the NW Caribbean Tue night into Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the subtropical Atlantic near 31N61W and
extends through the central Bahamas into NW Cuba. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 90 nm on either side of the
boundary. Moderate northerly winds and seas of 7-9 ft are observed
behind the front. Moderate Southwesterly winds and seas of 5-7 ft
are observed ahead of the front in the western Atlantic. In the
eastern Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 23N27W SW to 10N43W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm SE of this
feature. SW of the Cabo Verde Islands, winds are moderate to
locally fresh with moderate seas building to rough. Elsewhere
across the basin, winds are gentle to moderate.

For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front will move slowly SE
through Tue, then stall over eastern portions of the area. Behind
the front, moderate to fresh N winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft can be
expected through today, before the front weakens and conditions
improve. The next cold front is forecast to move offshore the SE
U.S. coast Tue night, and may bring strong winds behind it by Wed
night.

$$
Christensen

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