[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jan 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

The surface pressure gradient between W Atlantic Ocean high
pressure and lower pressure over Colombia will support pulsing
winds to gale force offshore Colombia today, with seas of 8 to 10
ft. The ridge will shift some east and weaken slightly by
tonight, allowing for gales to end. However, winds will pulse to
near gale each night into mid week.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African
continent. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Liberia near
05N10W through 06N20W to the equator at 40W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 22W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The cold front has crossed the basin with a dissipating stationary
boundary lingering across the Yucatan Channel. Isolated showers
are observed in the vicinity of this boundary. Northerly winds
dominate the Gulf in the wake of the front increasing southward
from moderate to fresh. Seas are currently 3-5 ft in the northern
Gulf and 5-7 in the southern Gulf with up to 10 ft possible in the
southwestern Bay of Campeche. Due to the cold air, low stratus
is observed across the western Gulf, with areas of fog likely
within 120 nm of the Mexican coast.

For the forecast, the stationary front is forecast to dissipate
later today. Moderate to fresh winds across much of the basin and
seas of 8 to 10 ft in the SW Gulf should decrease through this
evening as high pressure crosses N of the region. Low pressure is
expected emerge off the Texas coast Mon evening, then track across
the northern and eastern Gulf into Wed. Strong winds, higher
seas, and unsettled weather are likely with this low. Strong to
near-gale-force winds are possible behind this low's associated
cold front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
gale warning off the coast of Colombia.

Outside of the Colombian Basin, moderate to fresh trades prevail,
except over the NW Caribbean, where gentle NE winds are occurring.
Seas are 5 to 7 ft, except 2 to 4 ft in the NW Caribbean. Dry
conditions are suppressing any convection over the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure in
the central Atlantic and the Colombian low will support near gale
conditions to pulse nightly early this week. Generally moderate to
fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. A weak cold front will move
through waters near western Cuba today, before dissipating
tonight. Another cold front may approach the NW Caribbean Tue
night into Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the subtropical Atlantic near 31N61W and
extends through the central Bahamas into NW Cuba. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 90 nm on either side of the
boundary. Moderate northerly winds and seas of 7-9 ft are observed
behind the front. Moderate Southwesterly winds and seas of 5-7 ft
are observed ahead of the front in the western Atlantic. In the
eastern Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 23N27W SW to 10N43W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm SE of this
feature. SW of the Cabo Verde Islands, winds are moderate to
locally fresh with moderate seas building to rough. Elsewhere
across the basin, winds are gentle to moderate.

For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front will move slowly SE
through Tue, then stall over eastern portions of the area. Behind
the front, moderate to fresh N winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft can be
expected through today, before the front weakens and conditions
improve. The next cold front is forecast to move offshore the SE
U.S. coast Tue night, and may bring strong winds behind it by Wed
night.

$$
FLYNN
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