[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jan 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning...

A cold front is along 31N70W 21N78W. The 17/1200 UTC forecast
consists of: SW gale-force winds, and sea heights that range
from 12 feet to 16 feet, from 28N to 31N between between 67W and
72W. These conditions are forecast to last for the next 24 hours
or so. The cold front is forecast to move eastward by about 600
nm or so, during the next 24 hours. The conditions for the wind
speeds and the sea heights will move eastward, with the cold
front. The wind speeds will be slower, and less than gale-force,
at 30 hours into the forecast period. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 400 nm to the
east of the cold front.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details
about the warning situation.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W, to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to
06N23W, 03N30W, 01N35W, and to the Equator along 44W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 08N southward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from a 1023 mb high pressure center that
is in Mexico near 27N105W, to 24N96W in the west central Gulf of
Mexico, to the Straits of Florida.

Strong NW winds are within 140 nm of the west coast of Florida.
Fresh winds cover the rest of the Gulf of Mexico from 90W
eastward. Gentle winds cover the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. The
sea heights range from 8 feet to 13 feet, from 29N southward
from 90W eastward. The comparatively highest sea heights are off
the NW coast of Cuba. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7
feet, from 29N northward from 90W eastward. The sea heights
range from 8 feet to 11 feet from 24N southward from 90W
westward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet,
elsewhere, from 90W westward.

High pressure ridging over the far western Gulf dominates the
basin. Fresh to strong NW winds will continue over the NE Gulf
through midday before diminishing. Seas will subside gradually
from W to E today, with seas under 12 ft in the SE Gulf by early
afternoon. Fresh southerly return flow will set up across the
western Gulf on Tue ahead of the next cold front forecast to
emerge from the coast of Texas Wed night and extend from the
Florida Big Bend to Tampico, Mexico Thu night. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and building seas will follow the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through the SE part of Cuba, along 21N at
77W/78W. The cold front continues to 19N80W, and it curves to
the SE coastal areas of Nicaragua. The sea heights range from 8
feet to 13 feet to the northwest of the cold front. The only
exception is from 19N northward between the cold front and 83W,
where the sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet. The
comparatively highest sea heights of 13 feet are near the NW
coast of Cuba. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet, in
the remainder of the area, to the east of the cold front.
Moderate to fresh winds span the entire Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are within 60 nm on
either side of the cold front.

A surface ridge passes through 22N61W in the Atlantic Ocean,
across Puerto Rico, to 16N71W, into the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea.

Convergent trade winds are triggering isolated to widely
scattered rainshowers, throughout the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

A cold front extending from eastern Cuba near 21N78W to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border near 15N83W will stall this afternoon
and dissipate tonight. Moderate to fresh NW winds and 8-11 ft
seas are noted behind the front. Those seas will subside
tonight. Mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail near the
coast of Colombia through tonight. Then, fresh to strong winds
are expected in the central Caribbean beginning on Tue as high
pressure builds N of the area. Near gale force winds will pulse
near the coast of Colombia at night, Tue night through Thu
night. Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
current cold front, the gale-force wind warning for the Atlantic
Ocean, the sea heights, and related precipitation.

A second cold front passes through 31N42W, to 25N50W, to 20N59W.
The sea heights range from 8 feet to 12 feet between 40W and
60W. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet, elsewhere from
20N southward between 40W and 60W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 60 nm on
either side of the cold front.

A surface ridge passes through 31N56W to 23N61W, across Puerto
Rico, to 16N71W in the Caribbean Sea.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean 1009 mb low pressure center is near
30N27W. An occluded front curves away from the western periphery
of the low pressure center, to 30N25W. A cold front continues
from 30N25W to 26N26W and 22N30W. A surface trough curves through
21N to 26N, about 360 nm to the east and southeast of the cold
front. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet, from 20N
northward from 40W eastward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to
7 feet, elsewhere, from 20N southward from 40W eastward. Strong
winds are from 24N northward between the Canary Islands and the
occluded front/cold front. Moderate winds are from 20N northward
between the western side of the 30N25W 22N30W cold front and 64W.
Fresh winds are within 240 nm to 400 nm on either side of the line
09N23W 10N38W 13N49W 16N61W...within 240 nm on the eastern half
of the line, and within 400 nm on the western half of the line.

A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 26N41W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward between the 31N42W 20N59W cold front, and the third
cold front that is with the 30N27W 1009 mb low pressure center
and occluded front.

A cold front extends from 31N70W to the central Bahamas near
24N75W into eastern Cuba near 21N78W. Gale force winds will
persist on either side of the front through this afternoon. The
front will reach from 31N66W to eastern Cuba by this evening,
and move across the SE waters on Tue, then begin to lift N on
Wed while dissipating. Fresh to strong winds will continue to
affect the waters N of 27N through Tue morning. Seas will
subside gradually from W to E through mid-week. High pressure
will follow the front. The next cold front is forecast to move
offshore northern Florida Thu night.

$$
mt/ah
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