[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072316
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jan 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly over the African continent. The
ITCZ extends form 03N15W to 05N32W to the mouth of the Amazon
River in Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N
to 07N between 16W and 21W. Similar convection is observed from
the equator to 02N between 45W and 47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is analyzed just south of Tampa Bay, extending
eastward through the E Gulf to 26N88W. From 26N88W, the frontal
boundary is stationary and extends to near Brownsville, Texas. In
the W Gulf, a surface trough is located from 19N to 24N along
94/95W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the northern
end of the trough axis from 22N to 25N between 93W and 95W.
Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are found north of the
frontal boundary, with 3-5 ft seas. Gentle to moderate trades
prevail south of the boundary with seas of 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will stall
tonight then dissipate over the weekend. Fresh to locally strong
SE to S return flow will prevail across most of the Gulf this
weekend ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the
Texas coast Sun night. Fresh to strong winds will follow the
front through early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The latest scatterometer data depicts strong trades in the
south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia, from 11N to
13N between 73W and 77W. Seas are 8-10 ft with this area of
strong winds. Moderate to fresh trades are noted over the
remainder of the central Caribbean, flanked by moderate trades in
the eastern and western areas of the basin. Seas are 6-8 ft in
the central Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the eastern and southwestern
Caribbean, and 2-4 ft in the northwestern Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will continue
to support pulses of fresh to strong trade winds across the
central Caribbean and the passages into early next week. Mainly
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate NE-E swell will
impact the Tropical N Atlantic waters into early next week before
decaying.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends over the NW portion of the forecast waters,
from 31N76W to 28N80W near Melbourne, FL. Fresh SW winds are
noted north of 28N ahead of the front, with fresh to strong NW
winds behind the front. Seas are 8-10 ft near the front, with
highest seas north of 31N. Showers and thunderstorms are
observed via satellite and radar ahead of the front, impacting
South Florida and the NW Bahamas.

The remainder of the Atlantic remains under the influence of a
1037 mb Azores high. The pressure gradient between this high and
lower pressure over W Africa supports strong to near gale force
NE winds off the coast of Morocco and near the Canary Islands.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades are seen on scatterometer
data east of 60W. Seas are generally 6-8 ft, except north of 17N
east of 50W where seas are 8-10 ft in northerly swell. West of
60W and ahead of the cold front, trades are gentle to moderate,
with seas of 3-5 ft east of the Bahamas.

For the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned cold front will
move E across northern portions of the area through the weekend.
Fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected in the wake of the
front as high pressure builds toward the area. Seas will also
build across the Bahamas, Florida Straits, and Windward Passage.
Another cold front will move offshore Florida by early Mon, then
sink across the Bahamas through Tue night. Strong NE winds will
likely follow this front.

$$
Mahoney
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