[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071751
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jan 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly over the African continent. An
ITCZ extends from SW of Liberia at 03N16W through 04N34W to the
month of the Amazon River in Brazil. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 16W
and 24W. Scattered moderate convection is present near the rest of
the ITCZ from 01N to 06N between 24W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front stretches southwestward from N Florida to the central
Gulf near 27N87W, then continues westward as a stationary front
through the Texas-Mexico border. Scattered showers are occurring
up to 50 nm N and S of the cold front. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are seen up to 40 nm N and S of the
stationary front. A few surface troughs are triggering similar
conditions from Ciudad Madero, Mexico eastward across the central
Gulf to the Florida Keys. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and
seas of 3 to 5 ft are present over the N Gulf, behind the frontal
boundary. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft
prevail for the rest of Gulf, including the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, the aforementioned frontal boundary will
maintain fresh to locally strong NE winds behind it. The boundary
will stall tonight from central Florida to NE Mexico and dissipate
this weekend. Fresh to locally strong SE to S return flow will
prevail across most of the Gulf this weekend ahead of the next
cold front, forecast to move off the Texas coast Sun night. Fresh
to strong winds will follow the front through early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the Honduras-Nicaragua border and nearby
waters. Scattered showers are found farther E near Jamaica.
Otherwise, a relatively dry trade-wind pattern continues to
dominate the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE to E trades and
seas of 7 to 10 ft are seen over the S central basin, N of
Colombia. Gentle to moderate easterly trades with seas at 2 to 4
ft are evident for the NW Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel.
Moderate with locally fresh easterly trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft
prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
N of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support pulses
of fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean and
passages through the weekend. Mainly moderate winds will prevail
elsewhere. Moderate NE to E swell will impact the Tropical N
Atlantic waters into early next week before decaying.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front reaches southwestward from a major low pressure
system off the NE U.S. coast across 31N76W to the N Florida
coast. Scattered showers are present near and up to 50 nm SE of
the front. Convergent southerly winds SE of the front are
producing similar conditions over and NE of Caribbean. A surface
trough is causing scattered showers over NE Hispaniola and N of
Puerto Rico from 21N to 25N between 62W and 66W. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the
Atlantic Basin.

The Atlantic ridge extends southwestward from a 1039 mb Azores
high across 32N50W to the Bahamas. It is promoting light to gentle
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft from 20N to 29N between 60W and the
Bahamas. Moderate to fresh westerly winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft
are found near the front N of 29N between 62W and the N Florida-
Georgia coast. Fresh to strong NE trades and seas of 8 to 10 ft
dominate the waters near the Canary Islands N of 27N between the
SW Moroccan coast and 20W. Farther W, moderate to fresh NE trades
with seas at 10 to 13 ft exist N of 10N between 20W and 40W.
Farther SW, similar NE trades and seas of 8 to 10 ft are noted
from 02N to 29N between 40W and 60W. Light to gentle winds and
seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will push
southeastward through this afternoon to SE of Bermuda and Just N
of the NW Bahamas tonight. Strong W to NW winds are expected
behind the front, N of 29N, into tonight. High pressure building
in the wake of this front will support strong winds and building
seas this weekend across the Bahamas, Florida Straits and Windward
Passage. Yet another cold front is forecast to move offshore of
Florida early Mon, sinking across the Bahamas through Tue night.
Strong N-NE winds will likely follow the front.

$$

Chan
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