[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jan 07 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near
09N13W to 05N27W. The ITCZ continues from 05N27W to 03N35W to
the coast of Brazil at the equator and 48W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted mainly south of the monsoon trough from 03N
to 06N between 12W and 24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front stretches across the NW Gulf of Mexico from eastern
Louisiana to Corpus Christi, Texas. Recent satellite
scatterometer data reveals fresh to strong N-NE winds behind the
front. No significant precipitation is noted along this
boundary. A surface trough stretches from Apalachee Bay, Florida
to the Yucatan Peninsula. A cluster of thunderstorms is within
90 nm east of the trough, between 23N and 26N, and is moving
eastward towards Florida. Another surface trough in the W Gulf
is supporting isolated showers and thunderstorms from 22N to 25N
between 95W and 97W. Otherwise, tranquil conditions and gentle
to moderate anticyclonic flow remain ahead of the cold front.
Seas are 1 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front will continue to bring fresh to
strong N to NE winds behind it. The front will stall from near
central Florida to northeastern Mexico Fri and dissipate by this
weekend. Fresh to locally strong SE to S return flow will then
prevail across most of the Gulf Fri night through Sat night
ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the Texas
coast by late Sun. Strong winds will follow the front early next
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dry and stable airmass continues to dominate the Caribbean Sea.
The pressure gradient due to a robust 1040 mb subtropical ridge
near the Azores and lower pressures over Colombia support fresh
to locally strong trades across the central Caribbean Sea and
the Gulf of Honduras, with the strongest winds occurring near
the Colombian coast. Gentle to moderate trades are noted
elsewhere in the basin. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in the south-central
Caribbean, 2 to 4 ft in the NW Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft
elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support
pulses of fresh to strong trade winds across the central
Caribbean, the passages and Gulf of Honduras through the
weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through
Fri before increasing slightly this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Gale Warning E of 35W has ended.

A cold front extends from 31N74W to 27N77W just north of the
Bahamas. Fresh to strong W winds are present N of 28N and W of
74W. A weak surface trough is analyzed from 22N61W to the
Anegada Passage. The rest of the basin is governed by a robust
1040 mb subtropical ridge positioned near the Azores, allowing
for fairly tranquil weather conditions. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass depicts a large area of fresh trades from 15N to
30N E of 45W. Fresh to strong trades are also noted from 03N to
15N between 40W and 50W. Strong to near gale force NE winds are
north of the Canary Islands, east of 17W. Elsewhere, moderate
trades prevail. Seas of 6 to 10 ft are occurring over a large
region in the central and eastern Atlantic N of 05N and E of
60W, with the highest seas located from 27N to 31N and east of
40W. Seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail W of 60W, except in the Bahamas
where seas are 2-4 ft.

For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front will move off NE
Florida late tonight/early Fri morning. Fresh to strong W to NW
winds are expected along and following the front, north of 29N,
tonight and Fri. High pressure building in the wake of this
front will support fresh to strong winds and building seas this
weekend across the Bahamas, Florida Straits, and Windward
Passage. A second cold front is forecast to move offshore of
Florida early Mon. Fresh to strong N winds will likely follow
the front.

$$
Mora
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