[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062316
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jan 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: Gale-force N to NE winds are forecast to
continue within about 90 nm of the coast of Morocco in the Meteo-
France marine zone Agadir through 07/0000 UTC tonight. Expect
seas of 10 to 14 ft in the area. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 04N30W. The ITCZ continues from 04N30W to 02N39W to
the coast of Brazil at the equator and 48W. No significant
convection is noted at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tranquil conditions prevail across the Gulf of Mexico, due to
ridging associated with a weak 1017 mb high pressure centered
near Lake Okeechobee. A weak surface trough stretches from
30N87W to the NW tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Another weak
surface trough extends from the SW Louisiana coast near 29N93W
to 26N96W to 22N96W. A cold front is analyzed just inland over
Texas. Surface observations and recent ASCAT data depict
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the basin, except in
the NE Gulf where moderate S winds are observed. Seas are 1-3
ft.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will continue across the
Gulf today. A cold front is forecast to move off the N Gulf
Coast this evening, bringing fresh to strong N to NE winds across
the northern Gulf tonight. The front will stall from near
central Florida to northeastern Mexico Fri and dissipate by this
weekend. Fresh to locally strong SE to S return flow will then
prevail across most of the Gulf Fri night through Sat night ahead
of the next cold front forecast to move off the Texas coast by
late Sun. Strong winds will follow the front early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dry and stable airmass continues to dominate the Caribbean Sea.
A surface trough is analyzed in the NE Caribbean. The pressure
gradient due to a robust 1039 mb subtropical ridge near the
Azores and lower pressures over northern South America supports
fresh to locally strong trades across the central Caribbean Sea,
with the strongest winds occurring near the Colombian coast.
Gentle to moderate trades are noted elsewhere in the basin. Seas
are 5-8 ft in the south-central Caribbean, 2-4 ft in the NW
Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support
pulses of fresh to strong trade winds across the central
Caribbean, the passages and the Gulf of Honduras through the
weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through
Fri before increasing slightly this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
a Gale Warning E of 35W.

A cold front extends from 31N77W to 27N78W just north of the
Bahamas. Fresh to strong southerly winds are present N of 28N and W
of 74W. Weak surface troughs are analyzed from 27N69W to 21N72W
and from 21N61W to the northern Leeward Islands. The rest of the
basin is governed by a robust 1039 mb subtropical ridge
positioned near the Azores, allowing for fairly tranquil weather
conditions. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depict a large
area of fresh trades from 20N to 30N E of 53W. Fresh trades are
also noted from 05N to 13N between 42W and 50W. Elsewhere,
moderate trades prevail. Seas of 6-10 ft are occurring over a
large region in the central and eastern Atlantic N of 05N and E
of 70W, with the highest seas located from 27N to 31N between 47W
and 52W. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail W of 70W, except in the Bahamas
where seas are 2-4 ft.

For the forecast W of 65W, a cold front will move off NE Florida
late tonight/early Fri morning. Fresh to strong W to NW winds
are expected along and following the front, north of 29N, tonight
and Fri. High pressure building in the wake of this front will
support fresh to strong winds this weekend across the Bahamas,
Florida Straits and Windward Passage. A second cold front is
forecast to move offshore of Florida early Mon. Fresh to strong N
winds will likely follow the front.

$$
Mahoney/GR
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