[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242312
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Feb 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure across the western Atlantic and lower pressure over
northern Colombia will continue to support pulsing NE trades to
minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night through
Sat night. Seas will range between 8 to 11 ft during the gale
event. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast
of Guinea near 10N13W and extends SW to 05N18W. The ITCZ then
continues from 05N18W to 02N30W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from the equator to 05N between
15W and 24W, and from the equator to 04N between 34W and 43W.
Scattered moderate convection is in between from 01N to 03N
between 24W and 34W, and near 02N48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is over the NW Gulf and extends from near
Morgan City, Louisiana southwestward to La Pesca, Mexico. Gentle
to moderate winds are on either side of the front. Mainly moderate
E to SE winds dominate the remainder of the Gulf waters. Seas
are generally 3-5 ft across the basin, with the exception of 1-3
ft over the NE Gulf. Abundant cloudiness with possible showers is
associated with the front.

For the forecast, the stationary will weaken tonight. A stronger
cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf late tonight, reach
from near Mobile, Alabama to Brownsville, Texas Fri afternoon,
then weaken as it reaches from north-central Florida to 27N89W,
while the western part of the front remains stationary to extreme
southern Texas late Fri. A low pressure is expected to form
offshore extreme southern Texas on Sat along the western part of
the front, and shift SSE through Sun as it dissipates. The cold
front will weaken as it continues to the SE Gulf by late Mon.
Strong north winds will follow the front over the far western
Gulf on Sun and Sun night. Another cold front will move south
across Florida and the eastern Gulf Tue and approach western Cuba
late Tue. Otherwise, strong east winds will develop off the
northern Yucatan Peninsula at night through Fri. Relatively weak
high pressure will settle in over the area early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia.
Please read the Special Features section for details.

The most recent satellite derived wind data provide observations
of fresh to strong NE winds over the south-central Caribbean
near the coast of Colombia and also S of Hispaniola to about
15N. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted across the
Windward passage, including the waters just N of Jamaica, and in
the lee of eastern Cuba. Gentle to moderate trades prevail
elsewhere. Seas are 6-9 ft across the central Caribbean within
the areas of fresh to strong trades, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. Seas
to 7 ft are in the Windward passage and in the lee of Cuba.

Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow
continue to move westward across the basin producing isolated to
scattered passing showers. Shallow moisture, with some shower
activity, carried by NE winds are also affecting northern Hispaniola
and the northern coast of eastern Cuba.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
across the western Atlantic and lower pressure over northern
Colombia will continue to support pulsing NE trades to minimal
gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night through Sat
night. A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean Sun
night followed by moderate to fresh north to northeast winds. The
front will weaken as it reaches from eastern Cuba to the northeast
part of Honduras Mon night and dissipate Tue. Another cold front
will approach western Cuba late Tue. Otherwise, moderate trade
winds over the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser
Antilles will increase to fresh speeds Fri afternoon and continue
through Sun along with building seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1026 mb high pressure centered west of Bermuda near 31N71W
dominates the western Atlantic, including also the Bahamas and
the State of Florida. A surface trough, reflection of an upper-
level low is analyzed near 60W, and extends from 30N61W to
16N60W. This trough will drift eastward approaching 65W by Fri.
An area of multilayer clouds with possible showers is on the E
side of the trough axis covering mainly the waters from 20N-27N
between 50W and 57W. A well defined swirl of low clouds remains
on the west side of the trough axis near 25N63W. The remainder
of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a
ridge anchored by a 1034 mb high pressure situated NE of the
Azores. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and the
aforementioned surface trough supports and area of fresh to
strong E to SE winds roughly from 20N-29N between 47W-53W. An
ASCAT pass confirmed the presence of these winds. Seas are 8-11
ft E of the trough axis based on latest altimeter pass.

For the forecast west of 65W, a tightening gradient between high
pressure across the area and a broad trough to the east will
support fresh northeast to east winds mainly over the offshore
waters S of 27N through early Sat. Afterwards, gentle to moderate
winds will be present over the region through early Sun. These
winds will be confined to south of about 27N Sun night through
Tue night. A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast
Sun evening. It will reach from near 31N69W to the NW Bahamas
and to South Florida early Mon, then stationary from near 27N65W
to 28N75W to possible weak low pressure near 29N75W. A cold front
is expected to extend from the low pressure to near Straits of
Florida by Tue night.

$$
GR
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